MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/21/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 8.0 (-106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Miami's offense -- which ranks a respectable 15th in wOBA (.310) for the year -- should have success against Feltner. The Colorado righty has allowed 1.95 dingers per nine innings over 32 1/3 career frames, and left-handed hitters have mauled him in that small sample, posting a .374 wOBA and hitting a whopping 2.76 jacks per nine.
Castano has even worse numbers. Across 60 2/3 career innings, the southpaw owns a mere 11.5% strikeout rate with an ugly 5.48 SIERA. Righties are striking out just 10.4% of the time against him for his career. Colorado's offense is nothing to write home about on the road, but righties C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Brendan Rodgers and company are in a mouth-watering spot tonight.
We project the final score to be 4.94-3.91 in Miami's favor. That's 8.85 total runs, and we think the over cashes 52.7% of the time, giving it a two-star rating.
Astros Moneyline (-128): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Two of the better teams in baseball open a series tonight in the Lone Star State. The Houston Astros are -128 moneyline favorites, but our algorithm sees them as even more likely to win.
A lot of it has to do with Houston's offense getting to face Trevor Williams.
The New York Mets' righty actually carries a 3.61 SIERA into this one, but over a much larger sample than his 35 2/3 innings from this year, Williams has proven to be a pretty meh hurler. He's posted a 4.64 SIERA for his career and had a 4.41 mark over 2020 and 2021. He will have his work cut out for him versus a Houston lineup that has the eighth-best wOBA (.320) and third-lowest strikeout rate (19.7%).
The Astros are countering with Jose Urquidy. After an uninspiring start to 2022, Urquidy has started to figure it out a little bit. He's recorded a single-game swinging-strike rate of at least 12.1% in two of his past three outings, and even in the midst of a slow start to the campaign, Urquidy is walking just 4.3% of hitters. While he'll be up against a stout Mets offense, Urquidy has the ability to keep New York in check.
Our model has the Astros winning by a score of 4.90-4.35, and we give Houston a 58.3% chance to win. The Astros' -128 moneyline price implies win odds of 56.1%. That creates a sliver of value, and we rate taking Houston to win as a one-star bet.