MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 7/5/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Tigers Moneyline (+130): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model has this game as a toss-up, which makes the Detroit Tigers an attractive moneyline bet at their +130 price.
Detroit has been brutal offensively for much of the campaign. They've shown a pulse lately, though, ranking 16th in wOBA over the last 14 days (.312). The Tigers can have some success in a friendly matchup with Cal Quantrill, a righty who is striking out just 14.6% of hitters this season.
Cleveland's offense is on the opposite trajectory of Detroit's. The Guardians were hot at the start of the season but have tanked recently, posting the second-worst wOBA (.281) across the past 14 days. While Cleveland has a soft matchup with Drew Hutchison -- the owner of a 5.57 SIERA in 24 1/3 MLB frames in 2022 -- the Guardians aren't packing much of a punch at the moment.
Our algorithm has Cleveland winning this game 50.8% of the time, which means we think Detroit wins out at a 49.2% rate. That mark is considerably better than the Tigers' implied odds of 43.5% from their +130 moneyline. Taking Detroit to win is a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation), according to our numbers.
Over 9.0 (-120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
We'll likely need the San Francisco Giants' bats to do the heavy lifting since Wood is a more-than-capable arm. That shouldn't be much of an issue versus Gilbert, who pitched to a lousy 12.6% strikeout rate this year in 44 innings in Triple-A. He's got a career 4.99 SIERA in 56 MLB innings.
Righties have given Gilbert, a southpaw, fits as they boast a .377 wOBA and 2.70 dingers per nine against him. Facing a platoon-heavy San Fran team, Gilbert is going to see a bunch of right-handed hitters tonight. We project the Giants to score a whopping 5.99 runs, so we don't need too much from the Arizona Diamondbacks' lineup to push this to the over.
That's good because Wood is a solid pitcher. He's spun his way to a 3.58 SIERA, which is miles better than his 5.03 ERA. A .340 BABIP and 66.8% strand rate are dragging down Wood's results, but he's legit struggled over his past three starts, permitting 13 total earned runs over 12 innings. We have Arizona pushing across 4.30 runs today.
In all, we project there to be a total of 10.29 runs and give the over a 54.5% chance to cash. We assign it a two-star rating.