MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 7/7/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 8.0 (-104): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
But hear me out.
The Tigers have been a respectable offense of late, ranking 13th in wOBA (.324) over the last 14 days. They just scored eight runs last night, five of which came off Shane Bieber.
And it's not like Cease is immune to dud outings. He sports an 11.0% walk rate, which can get him in trouble, and he's had blowups of six and seven earned runs this campaign. He also walked seven in 4 2/3 innings back in early June. So while Cease could strike out 10-plus today if he's dialed in, he has bouts of wildness in his game.
Maybe the best thing going for the over is the White Sox getting to face Beau Brieske. A right-handed rookie, Brieske has a 4.91 SIERA and is striking out just 15.7% of hitters. He's been a reverse-splits guy, too, permitting a .364 wOBA in righty-righty matchups. That could get him in a ton of trouble against Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, and Eloy Jimenez.
We project the White Sox to win by a score of 5.08-3.84. That's 8.92 total runs, and we think the over cashes 53.4% of the time. It's a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation), according to our model.
Arizona Moneyline (-102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 9.0 (-120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Keuchel doesn't have anything left in the tank. Since the start of 2021, he's put up a 5.06 SIERA with a 13.4% strikeout rate. He was released by the White Sox not long ago before latching on with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's made two starts with the Snakes, surrendering 10 earned runs over 9 1/3 frames.
Outside of Keuchel's 50.6% ground-ball rate, nothing in his profile suggests he is a capable MLB pitcher at this point. While the Colorado Rockies aren't as dangerous on the road, they do punish southpaws, mashing their way to a .334 wOBA in the split, the fifth-highest clip.
Gomber is better than Keuchel -- but he's still not very good. He's got a 4.45 SIERA and 17.3% strikeout rate in 2022, allowing 1.60 taters per nine.
Keuchel and Gomber should struggle, and when they leave the game, the offenses can keep rolling as both of these bullpens rank in the bottom five in reliever xFIP.
Our model sees value in the total and the moneyline.
We project Arizona to win 5.26-4.90 for a total of 10.16 runs. We give the over a 53.5% chance to hit. As for the moneyline, Arizona has implied win odds of 50.5% at their -102 price, but we have them winning 56.3% of the time. Both bets are rated as two-star wagers.