MLB Betting Guide: Monday 7/11/22

Brayan Bello struggled against the Rays last week in his MLB debut, and he gets a rematch tonight. How does our model see that game playing out?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Rays Moneyline (-104): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 8.0 (-102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

Our model likes the Tampa Bay Rays today in this AL East clash.

Tampa Bay is facing Brayan Bello, a rookie who has made only one start -- and it came last week against these same Rays. Tampa Bay roughed up Bello to the tune of four earned runs in four frames. Although he posted dominant numbers in Triple-A before getting the call, Bello managed just two punchouts and a measly 7.6% swinging-strike rate in that one. He struggled with walks in the minors (10.0% walk rate this season), and that carried over into his debut as he handed out three free passes.

The Rays are expected to go with Matt Wisler as an opener and Josh Fleming after him as a multi-inning bulk guy. Fleming has been really solid this season, pitching to a 3.48 SIERA with a sparkling 62.4% ground-ball rate.

Tampa has the edge today in bullpen and rest/travel. With the Boston Red Sox playing the Sunday night game, the Rays got a jumpstart on traveling to Florida following their afternoon game in Cincy. And in the bullpen, Tampa Bay ranks 8th in reliever xFIP while Boston checks in just 16th.

Our model has Tampa Bay winning this game 59.0% of the time. Their implied win odds at a -104 moneyline price are just 51.0%. Taking the Rays to win is a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation), according to our projections.

We also like the over. We project the final score to be 4.85-4.24 -- 9.09 total runs -- and give the over a 54.8% chance to cash. It's also a two-star wager.

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers

Over 8.5 (-115): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

We see a lot of runs tonight in this game.

Yes, the Oakland Athletics' offense has been miserable this season, but they can have success today against Spencer Howard. The Texas Rangers' righty sports a 4.52 SIERA over 60 1/3 MLB frames since the start of 2021. He's allowed a 40.4% fly-ball rate in that time -- leading to a whopping 1.92 jacks per nine -- along with recording an 11.1% walk rate.

It's not easy to back the A's offense, but we project them to plate 5.05 runs.

Our algorithm also likes Texas' offense a bunch today versus Adrian Martinez. Martinez has only 15 MLB innings to his name, but he's struck out just 16.7% of batters in that tiny sample. He posted solid enough Triple-A numbers this season, including a 26.4% strikeout rate, but nothing out of this world. We have the Rangers pushing across 5.16 runs.

Two meh bullpens should help, too. Both Oakland (6th-worst) and Texas (12th-worst) rank in the bottom 12 in reliever xFIP.

So, in all, we forecast 10.22 total runs to be scored. That's well over the 8.5-run line. We think the over wins out 64.4% of the time and hand it a three-star rating.