MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 7/12/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Rays Moneyline (+102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Rays +1.5 (-166): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
We had a perfect 3-for-3 night last night. Let's stay hot.
One of our winning bets was a Tampa Bay Rays moneyline wager, and our model likes them again today.
Chris Sale is making his season debut for the Boston Red Sox, and that makes this a tricky game to bet on -- because we have no idea what Sale will be like. At his best, Sale is one of the game's elite hurlers. But he's barely pitched the last few seasons, recording just 42 2/3 MLB frames since the start of 2020.
Sale struggled in his last rehab start, walking five in 3 2/3 innings. He never pitched more than four innings in any of his rehab appearances and will surely be on a tight leash today. That means we should see plenty of a Boston's pen that is a middling 14th in reliever xFIP and had to cover four innings on Monday.
On top of all that, Sale is catching the Rays at a bad time. Tampa Bay is hot of late, ranking 10th in wOBA (.331) over the last 14 days. Tampa Bay has plated 19 runs across their past three games, including 10 last night.
Corey Kluber gets the ball for the Rays, and he's been pretty dang good. His 3.74 SIERA is his best clip since 2018, and his 3.9% walk rate is a career-best mark. While the Red Sox are a tough matchup, things will look a little rosier for Kluber if Rafael Devers remains sidelined.
The Rays are priced at +102 on the moneyline, but we think they win this game by a score of 4.40-3.97. We give Tampa win odds of 59.0%, and a Rays moneyline bet is rated as a two-star wager (two-unit recommendation). Even at -166 juice, the runline is a good bet, too. We project the Rays to cover +1.5 70.5% of the time. The -166 price implies odds of 62.4%. It's a three-star bet.
Over 9.0 (-102): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Although Brieske flirted with a no-no last time out against the Chicago White Sox, nothing in his profile points to him being a quality arm. He sports a 4.86 SIERA over 75 2/3 career innings while punching out only 15.9% of hitters. He's also permitted 1.67 dingers per nine. Even in his no-hit bid last week. Brieske recorded just a 9.7% swinging-strike rate and gave up 41.2% hard-contact. He's not good.
Bubic might be worse. He's got a 5.25 SIERA this season along with a 13.9% walk rate. Whoo boy. He's surrendered 1.66 dingers per nine, too.
A matchup with the Tigers isn't the pushover you might assume it is -- at least for lefties. Thanks to guys like Robbie Grossman, Javier Baez, Eric Haase, Miguel Cabrera, and Jonathan Schoop, Detroit is half-decent against southpaws, posting a .308 wOBA in the split (21st-best). That's nothing amazing, but compared to how Detroit swings it against right-handers, it's not bad at all.
After Bubic and Brieske depart, the offenses can keep piling on runs. Kansas City's relievers have an MLB-worst 4.57 xFIP while the Tigers' bullpen is a respectable-but-not-great 15th in xFIP (3.98).
In all, we project KC to win 5.18-5.15. That's 10.33 total runs. We give the over a 54.8% chance to cash and mark it as a three-star play.