MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 7/27/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies
Rockies Moneyline (+116): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Lucas Giolito and Antonio Senzatela square off this afternoon at Coors. We should see a crap ton of runs, and that's accounted for by a sky-high 11.5-run over/under.
Where the value lies, per our model, is on the Colorado Rockies.
A big reason to like the Rox today is that Giolito is slumping. The righty has performed like an ace in recent years but is having a rough go of it in 2022, especially of late. Across his past eight starts (43 innings), Giolito has allowed at least four earned runs in five different outings, including six runs against the Cleveland Guardians last time out. His strikeout rate is only 22.1% in that eight-start span.
And it's not just these past eight starts that are troubling. For the year, Giolito has permitted a 43.1% fly-ball rate, something that is unlikely to play well at Coors. The Rockies are sixth in wOBA (.333) over the last 30 days, so they're swinging it well.
Senzatela isn't good, either. He sports a 4.68 SIERA and 12.7% strikeout rate. The Chicago White Sox should give him fits today. But we like the Rockies' chances better than oddsmakers do.
We protect both offenses to roll, forecasting a 6.12-5.90 final score in favor of Chicago. However, we give both teams exactly a 50.0% chance to win, rating this as a true coin-flip.
With Chicago at -136 on the moneyline and Colorado at +116, there's value in taking the Rockies to win. It's a one-star bet (one-unit recommendation), according to our numbers.
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
Over 8.5 (-115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
These teams combined for 11 runs last night, and our algorithm likes the offenses to keep producing tonight
We get a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill against Nathan Eovaldi.
Normally, Eovaldi is a quality hurler, but he isn't at his best at the moment. He gave up nine earned runs in 2 2/3 frames in his previous appearance, and the time before that, he was tagged for three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings.
While the results are bad enough, things look even worse under the hood. Eovaldi's average fastball velocity over his past three starts is only 94.5 MPH. It was 96.8 MPH in his previous 11 starts. Something clearly isn't right with him, and the Cleveland Guardians should be licking their chops.
Quantrill isn't having much success, either. His 4.78 SIERA and 15.1% strikeout rate are career-worst numbers, and he'll get a Boston Red Sox lineup that welcomed back key cog J.D. Martinez last night.
Our model has the Red Sox winning 5.19-4.95. That's 10.14 total runs, and we think the over wins out 63.9% of the time. We rate it as a three-star wager.
