MLB Betting Guide: Friday 7/29/22
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 11.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Last night, these two teams combined for 13 runs, and the Colorado Rockies got shut out. We project the Los Angeles Dodgers to go nuts again, and there are reasons to back the Rockies' offense tonight despite a difficult draw against Julio Urias.
Starting with LA, they are up against Chad Kuhl. We saw this exact matchup at Coors on June 27th, and Kuhl threw a complete-game shutout -- because of course he did. In his four starts since then, Kuhl has surrendered 17 earned runs in 17 frames while punching out 12 and walking 10. He isn't good, and his 4.95 SIERA and 16.8% strikeout rate show that.
After Kuhl departs, the Dodgers' bats will take on a Colorado 'pen that is fifth-worst in xFIP (4.33). You never know with baseball, but all signs point to LA going berserk tonight. We project the Dodgers for a massive 7.50 runs.
Urias is a much better pitcher than Kuhl, and the Rockies' offense isn't as potent as LA's. With that said, the Rockies are excellent against left-handers -- although they just got blanked by Tyler Anderson. For the year, the Rox hold a .341 wOBA in the split, the third-highest, and their 19.1% strikeout rate is the fifth-lowest.
Coors has been a problem for Urias. He has given up six total earned runs over 7 1/3 innings this year in two Coors starts. Last season, he conceded exactly four earned runs in each of his last two Coors outings. We have the Rockies plating 5.13 runs.
We project a total of 12.63 runs in this game, and we give the over a 58.5% chance to hit. It's a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation), per our model.
Giants Moneyline (-144): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
As was the case Thursday with Alex Wood, who wound up flirting with a no-no, the Giants are giving the ball to a pitcher who boasts some pretty dope numbers. Alex Cobb has a 3.25 SIERA, 22.8% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate. His ERA is up at 4.26 mostly due to bad luck -- namely a .332 BABIP (career average is .294) and 58.9% strand rate (71.7%).
Overall this season, the Cubs' offense hasn't been too bad, but, per reports, the Cubbies are actively trying to ship away some of their best bats, including Ian Happ and Willson Contreras. Those guys could go at any point or be held out of the lineup as a precaution. But even with those guys in the fold, Chicago has the 10th-highest strikeout rate (23.4%) over the last 30 days.
Marcus Stroman is up for the Cubs. Stroman has been solid in 2022, pitching to a 3.63 SIERA and 23.3% strikeout rate. But he's on the opposite side of Lady Luck than Cobb has been, with a .272 BABIP that is well below his .303 career average. His 9.3% swinging-strike rate also hints at some negative regression for said 23.3% strikeout rate.
We project San Fran to win by a 4.78-3.79 score (nearly identical to the 4.88-3.87 score we forecasted for yesterday's 4-2 Giants win). The -144 moneyline price implies win odds of 59.0%. We think San Francisco wins 63.0% of the time. As such, taking the Giants to win outright is a one-star wager.