MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/3/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Over 7.5 (-115): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
I typically focus on evening games, but our model backs this bet so strongly, I wanted to highlight it from today's 2:05 p.m. EST game between the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers.
We plugged the over in each of the first two games of this series, and it's cashed both times. We like it once more as Martin Perez and Kyle Bradish square off.
Perez has been something of a breakout performer this season, boasting a 2.52 ERA and 3.85 SIERA. While Perez has certainly been better than he's been in past seasons, there's also some good luck at play.
His .284 BABIP is a few notches under his .310 career average, and the same can be said for his homer-to-fly-ball rate, which is 6.2% -- well below his 12.1% career clip. His 20.9% strikeout rate and 8.9% swinging-strike rate are right in line with his marks from last year (19.1% and 8.3%, respectively), when he posted a 4.74 ERA and 4.52 SIERA.
Once Perez is done for the day, he'll pass the baton to a Texas bullpen that is 10th-worst in reliever xFIP (4.08).
Bradish has been able to miss bats, registering an 11.8% swinging-strike rate, but he's getting killed by homers. Through 51 1/3 innings this season, the Orioles' righty has permitted a staggering 2.10 jacks per nine. And that's with his home games coming at Camden Yards, which is 27th in home-run factor. Globe Life Park -- the site of today's game -- is eighth. He should be in a lot of trouble against the Rangers.
We project Texas to do the heavy lifting to get us to the over. Our model forecasts a 5.42-4.26 win for the Rangers. That's 9.68 total runs -- more than two runs over the line. We give the over a 68.0% chance to win out and rate it as a four-star play (four-unit recommendation). It's our top of the day.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Giants Moneyline (+148): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Giants +1.5 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
I mentioned our past successes with the over in the O's-Rangers series. Well, we have backed the San Francisco Giants in each of the last two days, and it didn't pan out either time. There are reasons to be bullish on San Fran again today, though, in the third game of their series versus the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Giants are giving the ball to Alex Cobb. Obviously, it's a brutal matchup as LA is among the league's elite offenses. With that said, Cobb is a tough matchup for the Dodgers. The owner of a 3.06 SIERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate, Cobb is having a career-best season, and after getting some rotten luck for most of the year -- which is why he has a 4.06 ERA -- Cobb's results have started to trend in the right direction.
He's surrendered more than three earned runs only once -- four to the Dodgers, of course -- across his previous nine starts. He has a 2.68 ERA and 3.07 xFIP in that span. In his last start, he punched out 11 in six innings of one-run ball against the Chicago Cubs.
Julio Urias is going for LA, and his season-long results are solid, per usual. But righties are striking out only 23.0% of the time against him, and the platoon-heavy Giants figure to pack a bunch of righties into their lineup. Urias is also giving up a 46.0% fly-ball rate this year, the highest of his career, which has led to 1.23 dingers per nine -- another career-high mark.
Our model sees this game as an extremely even matchup. We have San Fran winning by a score of 4.18-4.17 and give them win odds of 52.5%. With the Giants at +148 on the moneyline and -114 on the runline, if you don't want to take San Fran to win -- and I get it -- you can still get a quality return on taking them to cover.
