MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 8/4/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Twins Moneyline (+102): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees some value today in the underdog Minnesota Twins.
Minnesota is hosting the Toronto Blue Jays, and the Jays have Alek Manoah on the bump. Manoah is a quality pitcher, but he hasn't been as good as his 2.43 ERA suggests. His strikeout rate stands at only 22.6%, and he's permitting a 41.1% fly-ball rate. That's resulted in a 3.73 SIERA. Manoah is up against a Twins offense that is seventh in wOBA over the past 30 days (.328).
It's Sonny Gray's turn for Minnesota. Gray's 3.76 SIERA and 22.8% strikeout rate are nearly identical to Manoah's clips. He's been hot lately, fanning 12 over 11 innings across his last two starts, both of which resulted in just one earned run. Of course, he also has a difficult matchup, taking on a Blue Jays attack that is third in wOBA (.339) in the last 30 days.
These two bullpens cancel each other out, ranking 16th (Toronto) and 17th in reliever xFIP.
In short, this shapes up as an even matchup, and while it's mostly priced as such, with Toronto listed at -120 to win, there is value on the side of the Twins. We back the Twins to win this game 52.2% of the time. Taking them at their +102 moneyline price is a one-star bet (one-unit recommendation), according to our projections.
Over 8.5 (-115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
We should see a lot of offense tonight at Globe Life Park, and the Chicago White Sox will likely be the ones responsible for most of it.
The Pale Hose will see lefty Cole Ragans. It's the MLB debut for Ragans. He missed bats at Triple-A (27.0% strikeout rate), but he also posted a meh 4.73 xFIP. That's not good, and neither is Ragans' matchup as Chicago ranks fourth in wOBA against lefties (.336) and is getting healthy.
Once Ragans exits, a Texas bullpen that is ninth-worst in reliever xFIP (4.10) will step in. That's more good news for the White Sox.
Cueto is working some kind of magic to spin a 2.86 ERA. He owns a 4.42 SIERA and has a lowly 16.9% strikeout rate. The veteran just shouldn't be getting the results he's been getting, and we think Texas pushes across 4.97 runs today.
In all, we project 10.57 runs to be scored in this one -- well over the listed total. Our model has the over cashing 67.3% of the time and marks it as a three-star wager.