MLB Betting Guide: Friday 8/12/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Over 9.0 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Domingo German and Nathan Eovaldi are taking the mound tonight at Fenway, and we should back the offenses, per our model.
German has been decent in recent seasons, but in a small sample of 17 2/3 frames since coming off the IL, he's got a lowly 16.0% strikeout rate and an ugly 4.77 SIERA. He's struggled, and the offense of the Boston Red Sox makes for a rough matchup. We project Boston to plate 5.07 runs tonight.
We think the New York Yankees fare even better versus Eovaldi, who has been rocked of late. Across his last five starts (25 1/3 innings), the Boston right-hander has given up 20 earned runs, permitting at least four earned runs in three of his past four outings. He's faced the Yanks twice this year and allowed a combined six earned runs in 9 1/3 innings. We think New York scores 5.52 runs in this one.
So, in all, we're projecting a total of 10.59 runs to be scored. We give the over a 57.1% chance to cash and mark it as a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation).
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
Angels Moneyline (+108): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Oddsmakers are expecting a tight game between the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels, and we agree. But we differ on who we think the slight favorite should be as our algorithm sides with the Halos.
Patrick Sandoval is going for LA, and he's a pretty good pitcher. Since the start of 2021, Sandoval owns a 24.9% strikeout rate and 13.8% swinging-strike rate in 182 innings. He has a 13.6% swinging-strike rate for his career.
Sandoval isn't without warts, namely a 10.6% walk rate this season, but when his changeup is on, he can be nasty. He's taking on a Minnesota offense that is right in the middle of the pack in both wOBA (15th) and strikeout rate (17th) over the last 30 days.
Tyler Mahle has some similarities to Sandoval. He can miss bats, sporting a 25.8% strikeout rate in 2022, but he also has his struggles. Mahle's bugaboo is fly-balls as he's surrendering a 46.3% fly-ball rate this year. On top of that, he's currently in a rut. Over his previous six starts, he's given up 18 earned runs in 35 2/3 innings. He's been tagged for five dingers over his last three starts.
As I said at the jump, we think this will be a close one -- it's basically a coin flip for us. But we give the underdog Angels a 50.6% chance to win. Taking them on the moneyline is a one-star bet.
