MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/17/22
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Blue Jays Moneyline (-164): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Going to start off with an afternoon game (3:07 p.m. EST) because our model really likes this bet.
Voth is striking out only 21.8% of hitters despite 23 of his 32 appearances coming from the 'pen, a role that usually elevates someone's strikeout rate. He's permitting 1.52 jacks per nine to righties this season, and he'll see a righty-heavy Toronto lineup today, one that is fourth in home wOBA (.336). It's probably not going to go well for Voth, and our algorithm projects the Jays to score a whopping 5.59 runs.
Toronto is giving the ball to Ross Stripling. Once a starter, then a reliever and now a starter again (for the time being), Stripling has been decent enough since being moved back to the rotation, compiling a 3.81 xFIP in 50 2/3 frames over 10 starts. His strikeout rate is 22.2% across his previous four outings. We have the O's scoring only 3.91 runs in this one.
At their -164 moneyline price, the Jays' implied win odds are 62.1%. We think they win 69.7% of the time. Taking Toronto on the moneyline is a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation), per our numbers.
Over 8.0 (-118): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
For the campaign, Hill is sporting a 4.50 SIERA and 17.8% strikeout rate. Things have really gone downhill (Hill, ha) of late, though. Over his last five starts, Hill has surrendered 15 earned runs in 22 2/3 frames while punching out 15 and walking 11. It's been bad, and while the Pirates' offense is not good, we project them to push across 4.70 runs tonight.
Roansy Contreras is up for Pittsburgh. He's shown plenty of promise as a rookie this season -- posting a 12.3% swinging-strike rate -- but he's also given up a 41.5% fly-ball rate, 10.1% walk rate and 1.62 homers per nine.
Plus, the Pirates are clearly trying to limit his innings. This is Contreras' first start back from Triple-A, where he made four outings that went five, four, three and two innings (and not due to offenses having success against him). He'll likely be on a short leash tonight, and that means more of a Pirates bullpen that is dead last in xFIP (5.32) over the past 14 days.
We have Boston scoring 5.09 runs.
So, in all, we are projecting 9.79 total runs for this game. We give the over a 60.9% chance to hit and rate it as a three-star play.