MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/23/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Blue Jays Moneyline (-142): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Blue Jays -1.5 (+110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Toronto Blue Jays are listed as favorites today at Fenway Park, but our model likes them even more than oddsmakers do.
On paper, the Jays have a huge advantage on the mound.
Toronto is sending Ross Stripling to the hill. Stripling has bounced between the rotation and bullpen in 2022, and he's put up solid numbers, including a 3.61 SIERA, 48.1% ground-ball rate and 4.2% walk rate. He's been in a groove lately, allowing only four earned runs over his last four starts (21 2/3 innings).
The Boston Red Sox -- who have lost three of their past four -- are countering with Josh Winckowski. Over 60 2/3 innings this season, Winckowski has struck out just 13.5% of hitters while allowing 1.48 jacks per nine. In all, it's led to a 4.84 SIERA.
With these teams rating out similarly offensively and in the bullpen, the edge in starting pitching is enough to make the Blue Jays a comfortable favorite by our numbers. We have Toronto winning by a score of 6.29-4.57.
We think the Jays win this game 65.9% of the time. The implied win odds at their -142 moneyline price are just 58.7%. Taking Toronto to win is a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation).
We also like the Jays to cover as 1.5-run favorites. Our model projects them to do so 54.9% of the time, with the Jays on the runline rating out as another two-star bet.
Guardians Moneyline (+130): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Guardians -1.5 (-160): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Civale has been pretty darn good lately. Across his last eight starts, he's permitted more than two earned runs only twice, posting a 3.13 xFIP and 39 punchouts in that span. He owns a 3.63 SIERA and 23.7% strikeout rate for the campaign (64 frames). The San Diego Padres are a rough matchup, but Civale has been throwing really well.
Clevinger, on the other hand, has underwhelmed in recent starts. Over his past five outings, he's recorded a meager 14.9% strikeout rate with a 4.61 xFIP. And the worst part about it is how easy the matchups have been. Outside of a start versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, it's been cake matchups -- Colorado Rockies (in San Diego), Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals and Detroit Tigers.
Clevinger should be in some trouble today against his old mates as the Cleveland Guardians' offense is 12th in wOBA (.314) over the last 30 days.
Our numbers have this game as close to a coin flip, giving the Padres a 51.2% chance to win. That creates value on the Guardians. At their +130 moneyline price, Cleveland carries implied win odds of 43.5%. We think they win 48.4% of the time. Taking Cleveland to win is a one-star wager.
You can also take Cleveland on the runline -- where they are 1.5-run 'dogs and priced at -160 to cover (61.5% implied odds). Our algorithm gives the Guardians a 65.8% chance to cover.