MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/24/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Over 9.0 (+100): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model is expecting there to be a lot of runs tonight at Wrigley, and we have the St. Louis Cardinals doing the most damage.
The Red Birds are taking on Luke Farrell. They should have a huge day. Farrell has spent the entire season at Triple-A, amassing a mere 19.0% strikeout rate and allowing 1.53 dingers per nine. That doesn't bode well for his chances of quieting a white-hot Cards offense, one that leads baseball in wOBA (.375) over the last 30 days.
Once Farrell departs, the good times should keep rolling for the Cardinals' bats against a Chicago Cubs bullpen that was once a strength earlier this year but has the fifth-worst xFIP (4.41) in the past 30 days.
We have St. Louis pushing across 5.82 runs.
Miles Mikolas is going for the Cards, and there are reasons to think the Chicago offense can have some success.
Despite a solid 3.96 SIERA, Mikolas is punching out only 18.8% of hitters and is benefitting from a lowly .235 BABIP. If you buy into home/road splits for hurlers, Mikolas has been much worse on the road (4.09 xFIP) than at home (3.53 xFIP). He's also seen the Cubbies three times this year, surrendering at least three earned runs in two of the starts.
We project the Cubs to score 4.41 runs.
So, in all, we forecast a final score of 5.82-4.41 -- 10.23 total runs. We think the over hits 54.0% of the time, and with it at a +100 price, we mark it as a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation).
Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals
Royals Moneyline (+110): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
We get a pretty good pitching matchup tonight in KC as Zac Gallen and Brady Singer do battle. It should be an even game, and that opens up some value on the underdog Kansas City Royals, per our model
Gallen's numbers look great as he's sporting a 3.44 SIERA and 25.1% strikeout rate. But his swinging-strike rate is only 9.8%, and he's been a bit lucky in the homer department, failing to permit a jack in any of his last six starts. His career homer-to-fly-ball rate entering this year was 14.2%. It's at 9.6% in 2022.
Singer has very similar numbers to Gallen, including a 3.40 SIERA and 25.6% strikeout rate. But Singer isn't experiencing the same good fortune, and he's ramped up his strikeouts of late, recording a 30.0% strikeout rate over his previous six starts. His schedule over those six starts has been rough, too -- New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox (twice), Tampa Bay Rays (twice) and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Our numbers have this game as close to a coin-flip, giving the Arizona Diamondbacks a 51.6% chance to win. That means we see value on the underdog. KC's +110 moneyline prices implies win odds of 47.6%, but we have them winning 49.4% of the time. Taking the Royals to win is a one-star wager, per our model.
