MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/31/22
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Giants +1.5 (-140): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Giants Moneyline (+120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Starting with an afternoon clash (3:45 p.m. EST), there's value in the underdog San Francisco Giants, according to our algorithm. San Fran is hosting the San Diego Padres, and despite the Giants being priced as +120 moneyline 'dogs, our model has them winning this game 54.0% of the time.
They're giving the ball to Alex Wood. Wood has the stuff to get it done in this tough matchup, boasting a 3.46 SIERA. He's been stellar against San Diego in his most recent two starts against them this season, surrendering only one earned run and a mere six baserunners over 13 1/3 frames while fanning 13.
Lefties are the best way to stump this Padres attack, too. Against southpaws in 2022, San Diego ranks just 17th in wOBA (.311) -- compared to their active roster sitting 4th versus righties (.334).
Joe Musgrove is up for San Diego. A legit Cy Young candidate earlier this season, Musgrove has been in a funk lately. In August, he has been tagged for a .351 wOBA while posting a 40.4% fly-ball rate and 20.0% strikeout rate. His xFIP is 4.04 over his last nine starts; it was 3.07 in the 14 starts prior to that.
We give the Giants a 54.0% chance to win today and mark taking them on the moneyline as a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation). We think they cover as 1.5-run underdogs 65.8% of the time and rate that as another two-star play.
Over 8.5 (-108): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Oakland is sending James Kaprielian to the bump. Kaprielian has struggled to a 5.29 SIERA and 16.1% strikeout rate in 103 1/3 frames this year. Over his last four outings, he's given up 15 earned runs in 18 innings.
Anibal Sanchez is similarly bad. The veteran righty has only 39 1/3 innings under his belt this year. They haven't gone well. He's recorded a 5.17 SIERA and 16.6% strikeout rate while allowing 2.52 dingers per nine. The last we saw Sanchez in the bigs, it was 2020, and things were nearly just as bad as he recorded a 5.03 SIERA and gave up 1.87 taters per nine.
Of course, neither of these offenses are all that good, either, with each ranking in the bottom 12 in wOBA across the last 30 days. But our model thinks the bats win out tonight -- just like they did last night when these two teamed up for 16 total runs.
We project the final score to be 5.34-5.05 in favor of the A's. That's 10.39 total runs, and we give the over a 65.9% chance to cash. It's a three-star wager.