MLB Betting Guide: Friday 9/2/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 9.0 (-120): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The 9.0-run total tells you we should see a lot of runs in this one. Our model still likes the over.
Dallas Keuchel is a big reason why. He just shouldn't be in the bigs at this point. The veteran southpaw has a 5.02 SIERA and 13.9% strikeout rate in 2022 while surrendering 1.77 jacks per nine. Since the start of 2021, he's amassed a 5.01 SIERA and 13.4% strikeout rate.
Facing a Boston Red Sox team whose active roster is third in wOBA (.349) against lefties, Keuchel should be completely overmatched, and we project the Sox to push across 5.95 runs.
A longtime fly-ball pitcher, Pivetta has allowed a 42.7% fly-ball rate this year. Over his last nine starts, he's been tagged for 10 homers and has recorded a 4.33 xFIP. Once Pivetta leaves, he'll hand the keys to a Boston bullpen that is eighth-worst in xFIP (4.26) over the last 30 days. We have the Rangers scoring 4.84 runs.
In all, we project there to be a total of 10.79 runs today at Fenway. We think the over wins out 58.9% of the time and mark it as a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation).
Padres Moneyline (+140): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Darvish is having one of the better seasons of his career. Through 155 2/3 frames, he's pitched to a 3.44 SIERA, 24.6% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate. The walk rate ties his career-best clip, and the SIERA is his second-best mark since 2017.
While Dodgers are as tough of a matchup as there is, Darvish has had some success in three meetings with LA this season, giving up only seven earned runs -- five of which came in one start -- in 18 innings while fanning 17. Those aren't otherworldly numbers, but against the Dodgers, they're pretty solid.
May has thrown just 11 innings over two starts since coming off the IL. The results have been immense, though, as he's striking out 31.7% of hitters, showing the same upside he showed last year prior to going on the shelf.
But he's faced the Miami Marlins in both of those outings and has topped out at 86 pitches as the Dodgers manage his workload. The matchup with the Padres -- whose active roster is third in wOBA (.333) against righties -- will be by far his toughest test yet.
We project the Dodgers to win this game 53.2% of the time, meaning we give San Diego win odds of 46.8%. The Padres' implied odds at their +140 moneyline price are just 41.7%. Taking San Diego to win is rated as a one-star bet, according to our numbers.