MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/7/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Giants +1.5 (+105): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
It's never easy to bet against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but our algorithm likes the San Francisco Giants' chances of keeping things close in this afternoon affair (4:10 p.m. EST).
Alex Cobb is pitching for the Giants. Cobb has put together a really nice season, posting a 3.07 SIERA, 24.7% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. The matchup couldn't be tougher, but Cobb is red-hot right now, registering a 2.49 xFIP and 28.6% strikeout rate across his previous seven starts, a stretch that includes a solid three-run, six-inning outing against the Dodgers.
Clayton Kershaw is up for the Dodgers. He's been on a super short leash of late, failing to go past 5 1/3 innings in any of his past four starts. His strikeout rate is just 23.8% in that span. While Kershaw has the stuff to handle the Giants' offense, San Fran isn't bad versus left-handers. They just tagged Andrew Heaney for four homers earlier this week.
In all, we project LA to win by a score of 4.28-3.66, but we see value on the runline. The Giants are 1.5-run 'dogs at a +105 price (48.8% implied odds), and we give them a 58.3% chance to cover. It's a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation), according to our numbers.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Over 8.0 (-106): 5-Star Rating Out of 5
Reds Moneyline (+126): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Mike Minor and Javier Assad are starting tonight at Wrigley, and our model is in love with the over.
Assad has only 10 MLB innings to his name, but they haven't gone well as he's got a 5.68 SIERA and 13.0% strikeout rate. In a larger sample in Double-A, Assad recorded a meh 4.34 xFIP across 71 2/3 innings. He doesn't have the profile of a guy ready to succeed in the bigs, and he will be followed by a Chicago Cubs bullpen that is sixth-worst in reliever xFIP (4.37) over the last 30 days.
Minor is having the worst season of his long career, struggling to a 4.76 SIERA and 17.4% strikeout rate. He's giving up 2.13 homers per nine thanks to a 46.0% fly-ball rate. Whew.
While neither offense is all that good, we think they'll light up the scoreboard today. We project the Cincinnati Reds to win by a score of 5.67-5.49, which creates value in a few places.
The most glaring spot is the total, where the line is 8.0 runs. We think these two teams soar past that and project them to combine for 11.16 runs -- more than three runs over the total. We give the over a 71.7% chance to cash and mark it as a rare five-star bet.
The other value lies with the Reds. Priced at +126 on the moneyline, which implies odds of 44.2%, the Reds have a 49.5% chance to win, per our model. Taking Cincy to win is a one-star wager.
