MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/8/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Over 7.0 (-114): 5-Star Rating Out of 5
Sandy Alcantara is pitching for the Miami Marlins, so I understand any hesitancy you have about betting the over in this game. But our model isn't hesitant at all, giving the over a five-star rating (five-unit recommendation).
Alcantara hasn't been at his best of late, and the league leader in innings pitched might be wearing down a bit. Across his previous seven starts, Alcantara has been tagged for at least four runs in four separate outings, including giving up six runs apiece in two of his last three starts. Not a high-strikeout guy anyway, Alcantara's strikeout rate is only 19.0% in that time.
The Philadelphia Phillies got to Alcantara for four earned runs in 7 1/3 frames during that span, and we have the Phillies plating 4.95 runs tonight.
The Phils are turning to Kyle Gibson, and he's unlikely to shut down Miami. Gibson owns a blah 19.5% strikeout rate, and while he does a good job limiting fly-balls (34.4% rate), he's got just a 4.33 xFIP in the second half. We have the Marlins scoring 4.44 runs in this one.
The bullpens should help our cause, too. Over the last 30 days, both Miami (4.17) and Philly (4.04) rank in the bottom 12 in reliever xFIP.
In all, we see 9.39 runs being scored, and we give the over a 65.4% chance to cash. It's our best bet of the night.
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Yankees Moneyline (-142): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Nestor Cortes and Sonny Gray tangle tonight in the Bronx, and our model likes the New York Yankees just a smidge more than oddsmakers do.
Cortes is making his first start off the IL. He's been stellar all season long, sporting a 3.52 SIERA, 25.9% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. He can have success against a Minnesota Twins offense that is in a rut, struggling to the seventh-worst wOBA (.297) over the last 30 days.
The Twins are countering with Sonny Gray. The owner of a 3.81 SIERA and 23.7% strikeout rate, Gray has been good in 2022. But his 9.1% swinging-strike rate hints at some impending negative regression for his strikeout rate, and his strikeout rate is only 17.8% on the road.
We project the Yankees to win by a score of 4.76-4.14. The Yanks' -142 moneyline price implies win odds of 58.7%. We think they win 59.1% of the time. It's not much, but it's something.
