MLB Betting Guide: Friday 9/9/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 7.0 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Yankees Moneyline (-108): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Frankie Montas is going for the Yankees, and after a difficult start to his time in New York, Montas has started to settle down, posting a 27.9% strikeout rate and 1.5% walk rate across his previous three starts. Last time out, he blanked these same Rays over five frames, fanning seven and allowing just one baserunner. But Tampa has been swinging it well, ranking seventh in wOBA (.322) over the last 30 days.
Tampa Bay will turn to Drew Rasmussen, who is in the midst of a dazzling run. Rasmussen has held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs in each of his previous eight outings (44 innings). He is, however, due for some negative regression on batted balls (.254 BABIP in that span) and homers (4.5% homer-to-fly-ball rate).
In spite of the quality pitching matchup, our model is really into the over. We project a final score of 4.35-4.06 in favor of New York. That's 8.41 total runs, and we give the over a 57.0% chance to cash. We rate it as a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation).
We also see decent value on the Yankees to win. We have them winning 55.6% of the time, compared to their implied win odds of just 51.9% at their -108 moneyline price. It's a one-star wager.
Reds Moneyline (+126): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Lodolo has looked pretty darn good through his first 73 MLB innings, recording a 3.51 SIERA and 28.3% strikeout rate. He's held hitters to a punchless .287 wOBA in the second half. Lodolo can get it done in this matchup. Over the last 30 days, Milwaukee is just 21st in wOBA (.297), and they're 25th in wOBA against lefties (.295) for the season.
Alexander, meanwhile, owns a 4.85 SIERA across his initial 62 2/3 MLB frames. He does an excellent job keeping the ball out of the air (52.6% ground-ball rate), but that's really the lone bright spot. He sports a 13.3% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. This matchup isn't a pushover, either, as Cincinnati's offense has been pretty solid lately, posting the 12th-best wOBA (.312) in the past 30 days.
We have this game as close to a coin-flip, which creates value on Cincy. We hand the Reds win odds of 46.7%, which is a wee bit better than their 44.2% implied odds at the +126 moneyline. Taking Cincinnati to win is a one-star bet.