MLB Betting Guide: Monday 9/19/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Over 8.5 (-105): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model loves the over for this game, and the Atlanta Braves' matchup with Cory Abbott is a huge reason why.
Abbott is expected to start tonight, and he's been bad in his brief time in The Show, struggling to a 5.22 SIERA over 52 1/3 career innings. He's spent time as a starter and a reliever this season and probably won't be in this one for long even if he's throwing well. We should see a good amount of a Washington Nationals 'pen that owns the sixth-worst reliever xFIP (4.25) this year.
In short, the Braves bats should eat today, and we project them to do just that, forecasting Atlanta to score an eye-popping 6.61 runs.
As long as the Braves hold up their end of the deal, we won't need Washington to do much against Kyle Wright. That's good, because Wright is sporting a 3.52 SIERA. With that said, Wright's strikeout rate is only 23.2% in the second half, and he's been tagged for 1.50 jacks per nine since the break. We think the Nats push across 4.20 runs.
So, in all, we project a total of 10.81 runs to be scored in this one. That's more than two runs over the listed total, and there is actually -115 juice on the under. We rate this as a four-star bet (four-unit recommendation) and expect the over to cash 69.2% of the time.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Giants Moneyline (-120): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 11.5 (-102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
We may get a Coors special tonight as runs should be plentiful with Chad Kuhl and Jakob Junis on the bump.
Kuhl has been bad this year. He's pitched to a 4.83 SIERA and 17.7% strikeout rate. Both lefties (.355 wOBA) and righties (.370) have hammered him, and the San Francisco Giants will likely have a lot of success at the plate.
Junis, the owner of a 3.74 SIERA, has definitely been better than Kuhl. With that said, his strikeout rate of 20.9% is far from impressive, and Coors isn't the place to be giving up a lot of balls in play.
Both offenses are in a pretty nice spot, and we project a final score of 6.80-5.84 in favor of San Fran. We give the over a 58.6% chance to hit. We also see some value on taking the Giants to win outright. Their -120 moneyline price implies win odds of 54.5%, and we think they win 58.1% of the time.
