MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/27/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 7.0 (-112): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
We cashed an over yesterday in a game between these two, and our model is leaning that same way on Tuesday.
Greene has a really interesting profile. He certainly has some positives in his game, including a 30.2% strikeout rate and 14.3% swinging-strike rate. He can miss bats, and he could plow through the Pittsburgh Pirates if he's on his game. However, when hitters make contact, they're doing a lot of damage, generating a 50.0% fly-ball rate and 1.90 dingers per nine off the rookie hurler.
Keller is having the best season of his career, but that's not saying too much. He owns a meh 20.0% strikeout rate for the campaign and allowed five earned runs in 4 1/3 frames in his only start against the Cincinnati Reds in 2022.
The bullpens should help us, too. Both sets of relievers rank in the bottom six in bullpen xFIP over the last 30 days.
We project a 4.17-4.11 win for the Pirates. That's 8.28 total runs, and we think the over wins out 56.0% of the time. It's a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation), according to our model.
Padres Moneyline (-102): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Whenever an underdog has the pitching advantage, it needs to be on our radar. That's the case today as the underdog San Diego Padres have Blake Snell going against the Los Angeles Dodgers' Tyler Anderson.
On a start-to-start basis, Snell is one of the more volatile pitchers in baseball, and the matchup versus the Dodgers is obviously a brutal one. But Snell has been incredible in the second half, pitching to a 2.54 xFIP, 34.4% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate.
Snell has held the opposition to one or zero runs in four of his past five outings. Of course, the lone exception in that time was a five-run, four-inning start against LA, but he also dominated them earlier this year to the tune of 12 punchouts across five innings of one-run ball. Snell is capable of dealing against any lineup.
Anderson has turned in a quality year for the Dodgers. But his SIERA is just 4.17, and he's got a lowly 18.8% strikeout rate. Facing a Padres team with a ton to play for this final week, Anderson has a tough task ahead of him tonight.
Our numbers see this game as close to a coin flip. We project San Diego to win 51.5% of the time. The implied odds at their -102 moneyline price are 50.5%. There's a sliver of value in taking the Padres to win, and we mark it as a one-star bet.