MLB Betting Guide: Monday 10/3/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
Over 7.0 (-104): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model really likes the over in this game, and we think the Cleveland Guardians are going to do the heavy lifting to get us there.
Cleveland is taking on Zack Greinke, and the veteran is running on fumes. His 4.78 SIERA is a career-worst clip, and he's striking out only 12.9% of hitters. While Greinke has had success against the Guardians this season, our projections have Cleveland reversing that trend tonight and scoring 5.04 runs.
As long as the Guardians' offense does its part, we won't need the Kansas City Royals' bats to do too much. They're up against Triston McKenzie. McKenzie is a good pitcher who sports a 3.59 SIERA, but he does have an issue with homers due to a 49.3% flyball rate. He's permitted at least two earned runs in seven of his last nine starts, and we think KC plates 3.89 runs in this one.
So, in all, we project 8.93 runs to be scored. We give the over a 61.6% chance to cash and mark it as a four-star bet (i.e. -- a four-unit recommendation).
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Miami Moneyline (+134): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
They say that momentum in baseball is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. This bet will put that to the test.
The Atlanta Braves are flying high after a massive three-game sweep of the New York Mets, and Atlanta has a ton to play for in this one as they try to keep hold of their newfound NL East lead. But the edge in the starting-pitching department lies with the Miami Marlins.
Atlanta is sending Bryce Elder to the mound. A rookie, Elder has recorded a 4.46 SIERA and 20.5% strikeout rate through his initial 49 MLB frames. Walks have been an issue for him as he owns a 10.7% walk rate. He wasn't a big strikeout pitcher in Triple-A, either, amassing just a 22.2% strikeout rate across 105 innings at that level this season.
Miami, meanwhile, is turning to Jesus Luzardo. The lefty has been really good in 2022, though, pitching to a 3.46 SIERA and 28.6% strikeout rate in 94 1/3 innings. He has a 13.2% swinging-strike rate for his career and facing an Atlanta offense that has the third-highest strikeout rate this campaign (24.6%), Luzardo should miss a lot of bats in this one.
We give Miami a 45.8% chance to win. Their +134 moneyline price implies win odds of just 42.8%. Taking Miami on the moneyline is a one-star bet.
