FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 4/11/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.
All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top of the Heap
Jacob deGrom, Rangers ($10,600)
Whew -- this is a really good pitching slate.
We have two elite arms at the top in deGrom and Shohei Ohtani, and they're both in great matchups -- deGrom will see the Kansas City Royals while Ohtani gets the Washington Nationals.
While I'll have plenty of both, deGrom gets the nod for me as the slate's SP1.
After a poor 2023 debut in which he gave up five earned runs in 3 2/3 frames, deGrom bounced back last time out, punching out 11 and permitting just four baserunners in six innings. And even in his bad first start, he still fanned seven, so his top-shelf strikeout stuff made the trip from the Big Apple to Texas. He got up to 92 pitches in his most recent start, so he's close to a full workload.
The strikeout upside is the main reason I'm siding with deGrom over Ohtani. deGrom's strikeout prop for today is at 9.5 with a -142 price on the under. Meanwhile, Ohtani's is at 7.5 with -118 juice on the under.
The Royals own the third-highest strikeout rate this year (26.8%) and just got overwhelmed by Andrew Heaney last night. All signs point to deGrom dominating, and he could go off for a massive FanDuel output.
Shohei Ohtani, Angels ($10,800)
While I have Ohtani slotted behind deGrom, there are some areas where Ohtani bests deGrom.
The Nationals have the night's lowest implied total (2.99) -- compared to KC's 3.14 clip -- and Ohtani threw 112 pitches in his last start, so he's fully stretched out and ready to roll. He's also the top-projected arm, per our model.
However, I once again come back to strikeouts. Despite the Nats being a -- at best -- meh offense, they don't swing and miss very much, boasting the second-lowest strikeout rate (17.6%). That's a big reason why Ohtani's strikeout prop is where it is today.
No one is going to be surprised if Ohtani posts the night's top score, and I'll turn to him in plenty of lineups. I just won't have as much of him as I have of deGrom.
Tournament Options
Corbin Burnes, Brewers ($9,700)
Ohtani and deGrom will -- and should -- soak up a big chunk of the draft percentage tonight at pitcher. Going with anyone else will be contrarian. There are some really good options, though.
Burnes would usually be right there in the same tier as the top pair, but he's been bad through two turns. His numbers are pretty horrific, including a 5.23 SIERA, 13.0% strikeout rate and 6.1% swinging-strike rate. Considering Burnes' sustained excellence, this is likely just a blip, but it's hard to feel as good about him as we can about Ohtani and deGrom -- especially with Burnes facing an Arizona Diamondbacks offense that has the sixth-lowest strikeout rate (19.2%).
The matchup combined with Burnes' struggles has his strikeout prop at just 5.5 (-128 on the over) -- well off the top two.
On the bright side, Burnes' ugly start to the year has resulted in a salary that is down $1,300 from where it was on Opening Day, and we know what kind of DFS beast he can be when he's on.
Early draft percentage projections around the industry have Burnes getting a single-digit draft percentage tonight. That's mighty appealing, and the salary savings he offers off Ohtani and deGrom can come in handy on a Coors slate where a few high-salary offenses are in great spots.
All in all, I'm intrigued, but Burnes isn't going to be a priority for me and is a notch or two below the top pair.
Alek Manoah, Blue Jays ($9,900)
Manoah draws a dream date with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit was an offense we picked on a lot last season, and it's going to be the same in 2023 as they're dead last in wOBA (.250) with the second-highest strikeout rate (26.9%).
Even with the boost from the matchup, Manoah doesn't possess the same strikeout upside that Ohtani and deGrom do, with Manoah's strikeout prop at 6.5 (-118 on the over). He ended 2022 with just a 22.9% strikeout rate and is a better real-life pitcher than a DFS play due to the lack of elite strikeout stuff.
With that said, there's no denying how friendly this matchup is, and the Tigers' 3.30 implied total is the slate's third-lowest.
Quick Mound Visits:
Dustin May ($9,500): His 0.69 ERA tells one story while his 4.44 SIERA tells another. Just a 7.8% swinging-strike rate through two starts. Not enough strikeout upside, especially on this slate.
Kyle Wright ($9,100): Nice matchup against the Reds (3.54 implied total) but is hard to trust as he might have a short leash in his first start off an injury.
Pablo Lopez ($9,600): Strikeout prop is 6.5 with a -164 price on the under. Tough matchup with White Sox. Would rather use Manoah or Burnes at similar salaries.
Merrill Kelly ($8,600): Likely the best value option. Solid matchup versus the Brewers. But this is not the slate to risk it on the mound.
Lance Lynn ($8,800): Another decent value dart throw. Twins are 27th in wOBA. Strikeout prop is only 6.5, though, with plus-money on the over.
