3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/19/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Nathaniel Lowe To Hit a Home Run (+520)
The Texas Rangers have a juicy matchup for some power today.
They are on the road to take on the Kansas City Royals, where we see some of the best hitting weather of the day. It's 70 degrees with 19 MPH winds blowing out to left-center, presenting an awesome opportunity for the hitters today.
Brady Singer will be on the mound for the Royals, a young pitcher who struggled versus lefties last year -- allowing 1.43 HR/9, .409 SLG, 36.0% fly-ball rate, and 43.8% hard-contact rate in the split. A high fly-ball rate is always dangerous, and if we add in the massive amount of wind, it's a recipe for disaster.
When it comes to Nathaniel Lowe, he had solid numbers last season versus right-handed pitchers with a 133 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .183 ISO, 34.2% fly-ball rate, and 32.8% hard-contact rate. There's plenty of power around Lowe in the Rangers' lineup, and he should be in a spot to see good pitches.
As always, I'm adding Lowe To Record an RBI (+120).
Nolan Arenado To Record 2+ Total Hits (+160)
When Madison Bumgarner is on the mound, we look to the righties he's facing.
That's the rule for this season, and we're going to stick with it. Bumgarner is not the pitcher he once was and showed it last year by surrendering a .512 SLG, .366 wOBA, 4.79 xFIP, 1.61 HR/9, 42.3% fly-ball rate, and 38.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are bad numbers across the board, and it gives opposing lineups a clear path to production when Bumgarner is on the bump.
We turn to Nolan Arenado, who was beyond elite last season versus left-handed pitchers with a 160 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .366 ISO, 61.0% fly-ball rate, and 33.0% hard-contact rate. Those are video game-type numbers, and it puts Arenado in a great spot to pick up two knocks at the plate today.
Just for the sake of comparison, Arenado to record 2+ Total Bases sits at -165. The differential in pricing between two hits (+160) and two bases (-165) is huge. I'm shooting for the most upside, and that sits with Arenado getting two hits today.
Trevor Rogers Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)
Trevor Rogers has a solid matchup for his strikeout prop today against the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants are off to a very rough start this season, and that is shown in their numbers versus left-handed pitchers. This season, the Giants have a 30.3% strikeout rate versus lefties, which is the fifth-worst in the league.
Rogers is off to a solid start with a 23.9% strikeout rate and 28.3% Called Plus Swinging-Strike Rate (CSW%), both of which are higher than the league average. Rogers has thrown more than 90 pitches in each of his last two starts and is fully stretched out, giving him a chance to go deep into the game and pick up strikeouts versus this San Fran lineup.
