FanDuel Pitching Primer: Friday 5/5/23

Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.

While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.

Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.

All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top-Tier Options

Corbin Burnes, Brewers ($10,800)

Corbin Burnes has an elite matchup against the San Francisco Giants and could be the best pitching option on the slate.

Burnes has gotten off to a slightly slow start -- by his standards -- but this matchup against the Giants is too good to pass up. Burnes is rocking a 19.7% strikeout rate, 8.0% walk rate, 4.34 xFIP, 11.9% swinging-strike rate, and 29.4% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). All of those are worse than what he posted last season -- most notably the strikeout rate, which was up at 30.5% in 2022.

This is the type of matchup that could get Burnes back on track since the Giants come in with a 26.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, the highest in the league. We also have Burnes picking up a very solid positive park shift since this game is in San Franciso, which is one of the better pitcher's parks in the league.

Burnes is one of the game's elite pitchers, and I'm not worried about a handful of games where he struggled a bit.

Luis Castillo, Mariners ($10,500)

At first glance, it doesn't seem like a great matchup for Luis Castillo, but the Houston Astros aren't the same offense this year as they've been in years past.

Historically, rostering a pitcher against the Astros is never an easy thing to stomach, but this year is different. To this point in the season, the Astros have a 23.5% strikeout rate (14th), .114 ISO (27th), 85 wRC+ (21st), 34.4% fly-ball rate (23rd), and 29.4% hard-contact rate (23rd) versus right-handed pitchers.

Are the Astros a bottom-tier offense?

Their stats would suggest they are bad against right-handed pitchers, and while that may not be the case at the end of the season, we want to jump on that now.

Castillo comes in with a 28.1% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 0.26 HR/9, 3.35 xFIP, 14.4% swinging-strike rate, and 28.9% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). He is essentially elite across the board and has shown a high level of consistency this season. You can trust him in your lineups.

Tournament Option

Max Fried, Braves ($9,900)

Max Fried may not have the same strikeout upside as other pitchers on tonight's slate, but he is still elite.

With a 24.3% strikeout rate, Fried is behind Castillo (28.1%) or Clayton Kershaw (28.5%) but is still very much worth using. Outside of the strikeout rate, Fried is rocking a 5.4% walk rate, 0.00 HR/9, 3.13 xFIP, 64.7% ground-ball rate, and 63.5% medium-contact rate.

The ground-ball rate and medium-contact rate are his bread and butter, which can often make him a better real-life pitcher than a fantasy pitcher. What I mean by that is he doesn't carry massive strikeout potential but can be very effective in terms of limiting the damage and preventing the opposing offenses from scoring. This generally allows him to get deeper into games and pick up the quality start points and the win.

The matchup against the Baltimore Orioles is an interesting one since the O's come in with a .185 ISO (4th) versus left-handed pitchers, presenting a bit of danger. However, with Fried's ground-ball rate and medium-contact rate, he should be able to take away that power from the Orioles' lineup.

So far this season, the Orioles have a 39.5% fly-ball rate versus lefties, which is the 10th-highest in the league. Fried simply does not allow a ton of fly balls, and taking that away from the Orioles' offense will limit their chances to pile up the runs.

Essentially, he will prevent them from playing to their strengths by sticking to his bread and butter. This should put him in a spot to succeed while not being as popular as the night's high-strikeout pitchers.

Low-Salaried Option

Josiah Gray, Nationals ($8,600)

For a lower-salaried pitcher tonight, let's turn to Josiah Gray from the Washington Nationals.

Gray has been a bit inconsistent at times over the course of his MLB career, but he may be turning a page this season. He comes in with a 22.0% strikeout rate this year, which is rather average when it's all said and done, but he has flashed some upside with single-game strikeout rates of 25.0% and 39.1% in his last two starts.

We've also seen Gray lower his HR/9, fly-ball rate, hard-contact rate, and barrel rate this season compared to last season. There are certainly some signs of life for Gray, and he could put that on display tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

This season, the Diamondbacks come in with a 34.1% fly-ball rate (24th), 32.1% hard-contact rate (14th), and 103 wRC+ (15th) against right-handed pitchers. The Diamondbacks' offense isn't overly worrisome for Gray, who is keeping the fly-balls under control this year and limiting the damage against him.