3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/14/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Sean Murphy To Hit a Home Run (+400)
The MLB is back! The second half of the season gets started tonight, and we are turning to a slugger from the Atlanta Braves.
Surprise, surprise -- the Braves have a big 5.69 implied run total, and with the top-notch power in their lineup, they can surpass that mark in a hurry. They are going up against Michael Kopech, who has struggled with homers this season and is a great pitcher to pick on.
This year, Kopech is allowing a .460 SLG, .342 wOBA, 5.10 xFIP, 2.05 HR/9, 47.7% fly-ball rate, and 35.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. These are among the worst numbers on the slate. Kopech has allowed 17 home runs this season, and 11 of them have come via right-handed hitters, making this the split to target him.
We turn to Sean Murphy, who was on fire to end the first half and will look to pick up that power starting tonight. He comes in with a 162 wRC+, .417 wOBA, .305 ISO, 38.9% fly-ball rate, and 45.2% versus right-handed pitchers. I'm almost salivating looking at those numbers for Murphy, who is flat-out elite. As usual, I'm adding Murphy To Record an RBI (+125).
Nolan Arenado To Record 2+ Total Bases (-115)
The St. Louis Cardinals have a solid 5.08 implied run total and a favorable matchup for some props tonight.
They will be up against the Washington Nationals, who will have Trevor Williams on the mound. Simply put, Williams is not a good pitcher. When we see him on the slate, we should be actively targeting him for player props since he allows so many hits.
This season, Williams is giving up a .512 SLG, .351 wOBA, 4.24 xFIP, 2.27 HR/9, .275 BABIP, and 40.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. These are great numbers to see when we are looking at a player to pick up a simple total base prop.
Nolan Arenado has been elite for many seasons and is about as consistent as they come. He's rocking a 128 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .229 ISO, 19.1% strikeout rate, .312 BABIP, and 38.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. This is a straightforward matchup with a straightforward prop to start the second half of the season.
Justin Verlander Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
For a strikeout prop tonight, let's look at under 5.5 punchouts for Justin Verlander.
Verlander hasn't been elite this season, and with a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers, it's all about the under tonight in my eyes. He comes in with a 19.7% strikeout rate, 9.4% swinging-strike rate, and 24.4% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. These are the lowest rates he's posted since 2014.
Over his last 10 starts, he's been over this 5.5 K mark just three times.
The Dodgers have a 4.41 implied run total, but with their offense, they can go off on any night and in any matchup. Not to mention the fact the Dodgers have a 22.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is just the 17th-highest in baseball. They're a quality offense that doesn't strike out all that much.
A lot of things point to under 5.5 strikeouts for Verlander.