MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 8/10/23: 3 Unders on a Slate with Dodgy Weather
Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Under 8.5 (-105)
The fact Kenta Maeda is pretty good has to be baked into this line already with so much public action on the Twins' side. Maeda's underrated 2023 campaign has seen him total a 3.52 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), a 29.6% strikeout rate, and a solid 6.6% walk rate. He's got enough firepower to shut down a Detroit offense with a paltry .696 OPS in this split during the past 30 days.
As mentioned, Reese Olson might be the overlooked party of the two. Olson has complied quality metrics himself, including a 4.05 SIERA, 21.6% punchout rate, and a 38.8% flyball rate that helps him avoid homer issues that plague a lot of young prospects. Olson's 37.4% hard-hit rate is also better than the league average.
In one of baseball's best parks for pitchers, this contrarian under should have plenty of life. In addition to the starters, these two bullpens are decently reliable with a sub-4.35 xFIP in the past 30 days.
St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays
Under 9.0 (+100)
The Tampa Bay Rays started this season so hot that they haven't been really knocked or scrutinized for any rough patches offensively, but they're definitely in one now against lefties.
They have just an 80 wRC+ against southpaws during the past month of play, so while Matthew Liberatore isn't exactly the best lefty you could put forth, he could have some success. Liberatore's 6.93 ERA is a bit unlucky, per a 5.75 SIERA, and he's ceded just 0.96 HR/9 this season, so you have to methodically work for runs against him versus other struggling starters.
That's the genesis for this bet; I'm actually more concerned that the prolific St. Louis Cardinals offense spoils it against Zack Littell, but Littell has proven to be a solid arm in Tampa. The sinkerballer has a 3.73 SIERA, allowing just a 28.9% flyball rate. That's a perfect match for a Redbirds offense that's eighth in groundball rate against righties (43.9%).
This is also another full-game under with a decently reliable set of 'pens; both are top-seven in reliever xFIP during the past 30 days.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 4.5 Runs in F5 Innings (+100)
We had reliable bullpens in the first two games, but this is a great example of what to do when they're not. We'll stick to the first five with both the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers sporting bottom-10 bullpens (by xFIP) during the last month of play.
It's Clayton Kershaw day in L.A., and it should be a special one against the dreadful Rockies offense away from Coors. Kershaw is excellent, sporting a 3.50 SIERA and 27.7% strikeout rate. Colorado's offense isn't excellent, sporting a pitiful 77 wRC+ against lefties in the past 30 days.
The drama here lies more with Ty Blach containing the Dodgers' potent offense, and I think he can for a few innings. Starting what's effectively a bullpen game for Colorado today, Blach hasn't surrendered a run in four of his last five appearances, and his 28.6% flyball rate is minuscule. He's another pitcher who forces hits chained together over a quick blast to spoil this total.
FanDuel has the best number on the market by a mile for this line. Most other sportsbooks have a pick 'em on a 5.0 line, but this one -- effectively for the same win condition -- sits at even money. If Kershaw deals as expected, the Dodgers will just have to be held in check to not score five themselves out of the gate.