Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Xfinity 500
For Sunday's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville, we've got our eyes set on drivers at opposite ends of the salary spectrum.
With 500 laps to be run, we absolutely need to hoard laps led. The perfect FanDuel lineup for the spring race at this track had 436 laps led across the five drivers, and we're likely to see something similar here.
Most of the drivers who rack up those laps led are going to be those with the lofty salaries. That's especially true with the eight remaining playoff drivers starting in the top eight spots.
In order to jam in those expensive studs, we've gotta find some bargains. That requires us to look long and hard at those with lower salaries and see who can help us bathe in upside at the top.
For both of these endeavors, we should have the data necessary to make our decisions.
Sunday's race will be the ninth this year using the low-downforce package. We can look at results from the previous eight to see who has pumped out good finishes, and we can reasonably expect them to contend again this time around.
The key races to focus on there are the first race in Martinsville along with the stops in Richmond, New Hampshire, and Phoenix. Those are the four races in this package at flatter tracks, and the overlap in performance should be heavy. Richmond, specifically, stands out because it took place during the playoffs and should account for each driver's current form.
All four of those races are in the sheet below. The other three races in the current form section are the three most recent non-flat tracks that used the low-downforce package. All races at these tracks involve extra off-throttle time, so even if the tracks aren't similar, it's better data than looking at what happened on Wednesday in Texas.
As always, the numbers listed are each driver's average running position rather than where they finished. A good illustration of why comes from Brad Keselowski ($13,000) at Phoenix. He had a sixth-place average running position there, tied for the second-best mark in the field. He led 82 laps and won a stage. However, he had some bad luck with cautions and finished 11th. Looking at the finish there would undersell the strength of Keselowski's car.
The other numbers listed are each driver's starting position, FanDuel salary, and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are in fractional form, so Martin Truex Jr. ($13,500) being listed at 3.5 means he is +350 to win.
| Current Form | Track History | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | FD Salary | Win Odds | Starting | Bristol 2 | Richmond | Dover 2 | Dover 1 | New Hampshire | Phoenix | 2020 | 2019 Fall | 2019 Spring | 2018 Fall | 2018 Spring |
| Brad Keselowski | $13,000 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 5 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $13,500 | 3.5 | 2 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| Alex Bowman | $10,300 | 32 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 23 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| Denny Hamlin | $13,200 | 5.5 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 24 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| Kurt Busch | $10,500 | 38 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 8 |
| Kevin Harvick | $12,700 | 8.5 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 6 |
| Joey Logano | $12,500 | 8.5 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 8 |
| Chase Elliott | $12,300 | 8.5 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| Kyle Busch | $11,800 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 8 | 36 | 6 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| Ryan Blaney | $11,600 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 31 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 3 |
| Christopher Bell | $7,300 | 100 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 23 | 21 | 16 | 20 | 28 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $9,000 | 65 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 12 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 30 | 30 |
| William Byron | $9,800 | 38 | 13 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 20 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 24 | 29 | 21 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,000 | 90 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 31 | 33 | 18 | 12 | 25 | 30 |
| Cole Custer | $7,200 | 150 | 15 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 28 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Clint Bowyer | $10,000 | 38 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 3 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,300 | 90 | 17 | 10 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 13 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $6,400 | 200 | 18 | 39 | 18 | 37 | 12 | 21 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 24 | 21 | 36 |
| Erik Jones | $8,800 | 70 | 19 | 12 | 20 | 21 | 16 | 23 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 29 | 17 |
| Aric Almirola | $8,700 | 55 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 15 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,600 | 100 | 21 | 26 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 19 | -- | 13 | 15 | 24 | 10 | 17 |
| Ryan Preece | $4,500 | 200 | 22 | 19 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 16 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 19 | -- | -- |
| John Hunter Nemechek | $5,500 | 200 | 23 | 20 | 28 | 22 | 26 | 24 | 20 | 21 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Michael McDowell | $6,000 | 200 | 24 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 14 | 22 | 32 | 26 | 22 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,000 | 200 | 25 | 22 | 26 | 25 | 21 | 24 | 21 | 26 | 26 | 19 | 16 | 23 |
| Corey LaJoie | $4,000 | 200 | 26 | 29 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 32 | 24 | 17 | 23 | 32 | -- | -- |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,700 | 55 | 27 | 15 | 29 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 21 | 20 | 16 | 12 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,600 | 200 | 28 | 16 | 24 | 16 | 17 | 24 | 22 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 25 |
| Daniel Suarez | $4,500 | 200 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 19 |
| Brennan Poole | $3,500 | 200 | 30 | -- | 32 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 32 | 31 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Matt Kenseth | $6,800 | 150 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 18 | 21 | 24 | -- | 24 | -- | -- | 22 | -- |
| Bubba Wallace | $7,000 | 150 | 32 | 17 | 24 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 27 | 12 | 18 | 20 | 30 | 34 |
| Josh Bilicki | $3,000 | 200 | 33 | 39 | -- | 33 | 33 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Timmy Hill | $3,000 | 200 | 34 | 34 | 37 | 35 | 35 | 33 | 38 | 37 | 37 | -- | 38 | -- |
| Quin Houff | $3,000 | 200 | 35 | 31 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 34 | 36 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| James Davison | $3,000 | 200 | 37 | 34 | 36 | -- | -- | 32 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| J.J. Yeley | $3,000 | 200 | 38 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 32 | -- | 33 | 30 |
| Joey Gase | $3,000 | 200 | 39 | 36 | 37 | 40 | 37 | 34 | 32 | 36 | -- | -- | 36 | -- |
Among the studs, it's hard not to love Keselowski and Truex.
Not only are they starting on the front row, but both blend current form with track history. Truex has won two straight at the track, and Keselowski has won two of the other three races on short, flat tracks this year. They've got easy access to laps led, and as a result, we should be inclined to pair the two together in a healthy number of lineups.
When you're looking for value to help you get to Keselowski and Truex, the two standouts seem to be Bubba Wallace ($7,000) and Chris Buescher ($6,600). Both are starting in the back (32nd and 28th, respectively) and had good runs here in the spring. Wallace, specifically, has a strong history at Martinsville with finishes of 17th, 13th, and 11th the past two years. Using one or both of these guys should make plugging in your favorite studs a whole lot easier.
