NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Guide: Pit Boss 250
The stars are definitely out for the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) road course in Austin, Texas this Saturday in the NASCAR Xfinity Series.
NASCAR's Cup Series drivers are limited to just five appearances in either of NASCAR's two lower divisions (the Xfinity Series or NASCAR Camping World Truck Series), but many are opting for one -- if not both -- races this weekend on the 3.426-mile road course that has played host to the United States' Formula 1 event since 2012.
For Saturday's Xfinity Series race, the field includes some of NASCAR's top drivers, including Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick, Cole Custer, and more. The field also has several road course racing specialists, including Andy Lally, Boris Said, and Miguel Paludo, guys whi did not want to miss this historic event.
With odds posted on FanDuel Sportsbook, let's preview the Pit Boss 250 this Saturday.
Win Pick: AJ Allmendinger (+420)
Austin Cindric (+250) is a deserved favorite and a talented driver for a team winning on plenty of ovals at the moment, but his betting number is pretty short for a field this deep. The same can be said for Kyle Busch (+300), as while this momentous occasion of a series regular being favored over Busch would inherently create value, he simply just has not been the same level of dominant in the Xfinity Series to justify his short odds on road courses, with just two wins and six top-five finishes in 13 starts.
Allmendinger is an interesting pivot off of the two. When he has been able to deliver at any level of NASCAR, it has come on road course configurations. Four of Allmendinger's six Xfinity Series wins have come on road courses, including each of the past two at the Charlotte roval. The roval is likely a faster configuration than COTA this weekend, but it is most similar to Road America in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin, where Allmendinger ran second last year and won at back in 2013.
Unlike any Xfinity Series start on a road course in his entire career, however, Allmendinger is entering this weekend as a series regular. That familiarity and comfort with his own team could propel one of NASCAR's road aces to a win on Saturday -- and do not count him out Sunday despite +3200 odds in the big show.
Mid-Range Look: Kevin Harvick (+1600)
The former Cup Series champion likely is just using Saturday as a test session for Sunday, when Harvick could use a solid run with still no wins on his 2021 resume. That being said, Harvick's odds to win are too long for a driver with a significant experience and talent gap over anyone who has longer than 8-to-1 odds.
Harvick actually does have wins on the road courses the Cup Series has visited regularly since 2000 at Watkins Glen and Sonoma. And his recent form in the top series on road courses is solid, as well, as he has posted seven top-10 finishes in his last 11 starts on them, including a sixth-place run in February at the Daytona Road Course.
There has yet to be any confirmation on the funding of the car, given that Harvick is driving for B.J. McLeod Motorsports, which is usually a team with poor equipment. Speculation, though, is Harvick's No. 5 entry will be prepared and maintained by Stewart-Haas Racing, which is Harvick's Cup Series team that also fields a competitive weekly Xfinity Series entry for Riley Herbst. Assuming the car is competitive, Harvick is worth a look at longer odds than series regulars without road course wins, such as Noah Gragson (+1400) or Daniel Hemric (+1500).
Longshot: Alex Labbe (+8000)
Labbe would be a great target if the Xfinity Series race had odds posted for a podium or top-10 finish, but he still might be worth a win bet given that the odds for him to win the race -- compared to his peers -- just simply do not match Labbe's 2020 results on the road course events.
Labbe finished 8th at the Indianapolis G.P., 6th at the Charlotte roval, 15th at Road America, and was running 7th before a mechanical failure brought him to pit road at the Daytona Road Course in August -- although those fields weren't as deep as this one. He had a top-10 average running position in all four events, and while his equipment for DGM Racing is always at least slightly suspect, the value of his odds is evident when compared to his neighbors.
Both Brett Moffitt (+7000) and Myatt Snider (+7000) have shorter odds as series regulars, but Moffitt and Snider combined for just one top-10 finish in eight Xfinity Series road course races last year. In fact, Moffitt's two final starts that he missed were both road course starts in which Andy Lally (+4500) drove his car as a fill-in -- and Lally is entered as Moffitt's teammate this weekend after scoring top fives in both events. That inherently leaves some value with Labbe at a longer number, even if the odds of him winning are very low.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
