Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Coke Zero Sugar 400
If you've played NASCAR DFS for any amount of time, you know how to play things at drafting tracks.
You stack the back in order to stack that cash.
As outlined in this week's track preview, the volatility and length of the race both lend themselves to our prioritizing place-differential points. It's a tried-and-true strategy, and it's one we'll want to deploy this weekend.
We just have to decide who best fits said strategy.
That's where we can lean on the data. The data sheet this week is sorted by the drivers' starting positions so you can better pinpoint who will make up ground once the green flag flies.
The data listed is each driver's average running position in the relevant races. It's worth noting, though, that average running position is less relevant for pack tracks. Not only is there a high crash rate, but you'll also often see drivers hang out in the back, hoping to avoid trouble early on. As such, looking at results for the past 10 pack races via Racing Reference's fantasy tool is a good supplement for this week.
The other data listed is each driver's FanDuel salary and win odds at NASCAR odds. The win odds are in fractional form, so Denny Hamlin ($13,500 on FanDuel) being listed at 8.5 means he's +850 to win.
| Track History | Current Form | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | FD Salary | Win Odds | Start | 2021 Spring | 2020 Summer | 2020 Spring | 2019 Summer | 2019 Spring | Talladega | Michigan | Atlanta 2 | Pocono 2 | Pocono 1 | Charlotte |
| Kyle Larson | $11,500 | 13 | 1 | 9 | -- | 23 | 16 | 19 | 40 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 5 | 1 |
| William Byron | $12,000 | 14 | 2 | 27 | 13 | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 3 |
| Denny Hamlin | $13,500 | 8.5 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,500 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| Chase Elliott | $13,000 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 3 |
| Ryan Blaney | $11,000 | 15 | 6 | 29 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 17 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $7,200 | 31 | 7 | 27 | 12 | 22 | 15 | 23 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 14 |
| Kurt Busch | $7,500 | 32 | 8 | 25 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 31 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 32 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $8,700 | 26 | 9 | 32 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 20 | 21 | 20 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,300 | 19 | 10 | 12 | 19 | 11 | 18 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 14 |
| Kevin Harvick | $7,800 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 7 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $8,500 | 26 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 23 | 20 | 35 | 19 | 20 | 12 |
| Chris Buescher | $4,500 | 47 | 13 | 30 | 18 | 13 | 20 | 29 | 12 | 20 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 14 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,200 | 24 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 19 | -- | -- | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 23 | 20 |
| Alex Bowman | $10,000 | 21 | 15 | 33 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 7 |
| Chase Briscoe | $5,000 | 47 | 16 | 22 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 16 | 22 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 24 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,200 | 35 | 17 | 26 | 16 | 18 | -- | 23 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 8 |
| Michael McDowell | $7,000 | 35 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 23 | 19 | 19 | 10 | 18 | 27 | 14 | 14 | 22 |
| Aric Almirola | $9,000 | 24 | 19 | 32 | 25 | 16 | 22 | 13 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 10 | 19 | 25 |
| Bubba Wallace | $9,500 | 31 | 20 | 12 | 15 | 26 | 22 | 33 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| Erik Jones | $4,000 | 55 | 21 | 38 | 15 | 23 | 22 | 12 | 20 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 20 | 16 |
| Joey Logano | $14,000 | 14 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 29 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 8 | 13 |
| Ryan Newman | $6,800 | 26 | 23 | 36 | 19 | 13 | 22 | 20 | 25 | 18 | 25 | 21 | 31 | 20 |
| Ryan Preece | $6,000 | 55 | 24 | 9 | 25 | 21 | 23 | 21 | 14 | 21 | 24 | 17 | 24 | 24 |
| Cole Custer | $8,300 | 47 | 25 | 13 | 19 | 24 | -- | -- | 13 | 25 | 21 | 23 | 37 | 24 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,500 | 47 | 26 | 34 | 17 | -- | 21 | 15 | 28 | 21 | 35 | 15 | 14 | 20 |
| Austin Dillon | $12,500 | 18 | 27 | 6 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 23 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 20 | 23 | 8 |
| Justin Haley | $2,500 | 130 | 28 | -- | -- | 26 | 31 | -- | 32 | 27 | 29 | -- | 27 | 29 |
| Ross Chastain | $9,800 | 42 | 29 | 12 | 29 | 15 | 37 | 31 | 14 | 27 | 20 | 18 | 20 | 35 |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,500 | 200 | 30 | 20 | -- | 34 | 36 | 34 | 28 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 32 |
| Cody Ware | $3,000 | 200 | 31 | 22 | -- | -- | -- | 35 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 27 | 24 | 31 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,500 | 130 | 32 | 31 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 23 | 30 | 27 | 37 | 24 | 22 |
| Corey LaJoie | $5,500 | 70 | 33 | 14 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 36 | 27 | -- | 22 | 25 | 30 | 22 |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 200 | 34 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 35 | 32 | 33 | 29 | 34 |
| Quin Houff | $2,000 | 200 | 35 | 28 | 32 | 33 | 39 | -- | 26 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 31 | 32 |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,000 | 200 | 36 | 22 | 39 | -- | -- | -- | 38 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 33 | 35 |
| Joey Gase | $2,000 | 200 | 37 | 20 | 37 | 34 | 36 | -- | 35 | 37 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Kaz Grala | $8,000 | 50 | 38 | 22 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 27 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Landon Cassill | $3,000 | 130 | 39 | -- | -- | -- | 27 | 29 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| David Starr | $2,500 | 200 | 40 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 37 |
There are some obvious cash-game staples here. Joey Logano ($14,500), Austin Dillon ($12,500), Ross Chastain ($9,800), and Kaz Grala ($8,000) are all starting in the back half of the field and have cars good enough to compete. You want to build around them for all formats.
The most interesting tier is the drivers starting from 17th to 20th: Bubba Wallace ($9,500), Aric Almirola ($9,200), Tyler Reddick ($8,200), and Michael McDowell ($7,000). They're not starting as deep in the field, but I would love to be overweight on each for tournaments.
The case for Reddick was laid out in this week's betting guide. I think he's a great win bet at +3500, which obviously translates here.
McDowell won the Daytona 500, one of four top-five finishes on pack tracks since the start of 2019. It wasn't a fluke. We should expect him to push for a top-10 finish again.
Almirola is a former Daytona winner, and he also has a win at Talladega in his back pocket. Almirola nearly won again in Talladega last year but got spun a couple hundred yards before the finish line (and finished third while driving backwards). He has place-differential upside from the 19th spot.
The case for Wallace is twofold. First, he had crazy speed in Daytona this February, finishing second in his qualifying race, the first competitive laps he logged on a track with this team.
Second, Wallace has shown his skills on the pack tracks previously, finishing runner-up in the 2018 Daytona 500 and fifth in this race last year. His team owner -- Hamlin -- is the favorite to win, and my simulations love another Toyota in Kyle Busch ($10,500) to win. That means Wallace should have help if he can work his way to the front. Our core should be the four drivers listed above, but we'll also want to shovel in as much Wallace, Almirola, Reddick, and McDowell as we can tolerate.
