NASCAR Betting Guide: Advent Health 400

For the second straight week, Kyle Larson is gobbling up a ton of win equity in my NASCAR Cup Series model.

I've currently got Larson at 18.7% to win, which feels like a massive number. But it's not big enough to overcome the 20.0% implied odds with Larson sitting at +400 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

So, when digging into Larson's odds at FanDuel, specifically, I can't recommend it. It's a different story at the spots where he's still +500 (16.7% implied odds), but at FanDuel, he's sucking up win juice without leaving much for everybody else.

As a result, we're going to start things off pretty light here prior to practice and qualifying and Saturday night. I'll also be primarily looking at markets that navigate around Larson as I do think he deserves to be where he's at in the outright market.

Which bets should we target for the Advent Health 400 after accounting for how silly Larson is? Here are three that have my eye right now.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+430)

(UPDATE: After qualifying, FanDuel no longer has this market posted. At other books, you can get Allmendinger as long as +800 to finish top 10 due to poor speed on Saturday. After accounting for the Saturday data, my model has Allmendinger at 15.7% to finish top 10, which equates to +537 as the break-even point. I'm still in on Dinger elsewhere; it's just a bummer we didn't get a great number at +430.)

As with the Larson outright, shop around before taking AJ Allmendinger to finish top 10. He's still available at +500 in some other spots. But even at +430, he's a value by my numbers.

My model puts Allmendinger's top-10 odds at 22.4%, up from 18.9% implied at +430. So even at this shorter number, it's still a decent edge.

The reason for the confidence in Allmendinger comes from what Kaulig did on 1.5-mile tracks in the playoffs. Both Allmendinger (at Homestead) and Justin Haley (at Texas) notched a podium in that stretch, and Allmendinger was ninth in Vegas, as well. Haley added to that momentum with a top-10 finish at Vegas this spring.

Allmendinger wasn't quite as strong there with a 19th-place average running position, but he certainly wasn't out to lunch. The gap between the model and the market is big enough here where I'd like to bet Allmendinger before practice just in case he shows speed there.

Ross Chastain to Win Group 2 (+230)

(UPDATE: Chastain has since shortened to +110 to win this group. He was fast in practice and qualified well, but that's gonna be a hard pass from me, champ.)

I've got value on Ross Chastain to win (8.2% versus 7.7% implied at +1200), so we could easily just go that route. But it's not a huge edge, and it could evaporate on Saturday.

As such, I think this is the optimal way to bet Chastain, over a group featuring Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, and Bubba Wallace.

Obviously, that's no weak group. Elliott is a former champion who drives for the sport's dominant team, Busch has won twice this year, and Wallace won the most recent race in Kansas. But Chastain has been pushing for wins on this track type in the Next-Gen era, too.

Chastain has had a top-10 average running position in all eight Next-Gen races on 1.5-mile tracks. That includes a fifth-place mark this year in Vegas, masked by a 12th-place finish. He has typically converted in the others, though, with five finishes of seventh or better, including three podiums.

As the model shows, Chastain has the upside to win the race. But betting this market allows me to avoid Larson and William Byron on top of most of the strong Toyotas. To me, that makes it the most attractive market for betting Chastain pre-practice.

Chris Buescher to Win Group 3 (+260)

(UPDATE: Buescher has since shortened to +155 to win this group. Similar to Chastain group, the value done dried up.)

The Chastain group bet is a bet on Chastain. This one is a bet against the two other organizations in the group.

Chris Buescher drives for RFK Racing, which has been steadily rising since last summer. His competition is Erik Jones (Legacy MC), Aric Almirola, and Ryan Preece (both Stewart-Haas Racing).

Legacy MC has been putrid to start the year. We potentially got an explanation for that this week with the announcement they'll switch to Toyota in 2024, meaning their funding from Chevrolet has likely been cut. I love Jones the talent; I hate his situation.

As for Stewart-Haas, they were wretched at the two equipment-centric tracks earlier in the year (Fontana and Las Vegas). They combined for two average running positions better than 18th, both of which came from Kevin Harvick.

Buescher didn't necessarily light it up in either race, but he was at least respectable, and he had good finishes in the playoffs last year at Homestead, Kansas, and Vegas. I think tracking the trajectory of each team in this group allows us to bet Buescher even if we don't expect him to compete for a top-five.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Kyle Larson to Win (+600)

If you were patient on Larson mid-week, congrats. He lengthened after Toyotas showed massive speed on Saturday. I was not as patient and got Larson at a worse number than what he's available at now.

Even after accounting for Toyota's speed, I still think Larson is a value at this new number.

First, it's important to note the Toyota thing is not just narrative; the data checks out. They held the top three spots in five-lap average during practice and four of the top five 10-lap averages. They were humming.

But it's not as if Larson was out to lunch. He ranked fifth in five-lap average and then went on to out-qualify all of the Toyotas by earning a spot on the front row.

The implied odds for Larson at +600 are 14.3%. It may be tough to get there mentally with the Toyotas so fast and with teammate William Byron sucking up win equity, as well. But I think this lengthening is an overreaction to what we saw yesterday.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Martin Truex Jr. Over Christopher Bell (+130)

Here, we don't have to fret the Toyota speed as both drivers are in this camp. If we're getting +130 for Martin Truex Jr. to top his teammate in Christopher Bell, I'm not saying no.

To be clear, my model does have Bell rated higher. He had two superb runs here last year, and he was fast in practice, ranking sixth in single-lap speed and second in five-lap average.

But the gap between them is minimal. Truex was just 20th in single-lap speed but improved to 10th in five-lap average and fifth in 10-lap average. Truex then out-qualified Bell and will start fourth with Bell in 12th.

Additionally, during the broadcast of practice, color commentator Clint Bowyer noted how fast Truex was, saying he would be a threat to Denny Hamlin, who was the class of the field in practice.

Bowyer's endorsement isn't in the model, but I still have Truex topping Bell 46.3% of the time. The implied odds are 43.5%. So even while I think Bell deserves to be the favorite, the gap here is too large to justify.