The 5 Best Bets to Make the 2018-19 NBA Playoffs
Charlotte Hornets
Projected playoff probability: 68.9%
Odds to make the playoffs: -110
We don't project the Charlotte Hornets to be nearly as likely to make the playoffs as the Lakers, but the difference between our projections and the betting odds is even bigger. A -110 line implies just over a 50% chance (52.4%), which doesn't come close to our projected 68.9% probability.
As I mentioned, the East is a far easier conference to thrive in than the West, and the departure of LeBron likely opens up a playoff spot, as we project Cleveland for only a 5.0% chance of making the postseason again.
The Hornets have missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, finishing with five fewer wins than the 8-seed last year and five games back the year before that. One year prior, in the 2015-16 season, they secured the 6-seed in the East, with four more wins than the 8-seed.
Charlotte's roster doesn't look all that different from last year. Their projected starting lineup is made up of five returning players, with Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller. They also return 6th-man Jeremy Lamb.
They added wing player Miles Bridges in the draft, but by far the biggest shakeup with the roster was getting rid of Dwight Howard and adding Bismack Biyombo down low.
Howard's contribution did appear on the surface to be a net-positive last year, as the Hornets had both a higher offensive rating and lower defensive rating with him on the floor than off, but a deeper look reveals that may not have been the case. 92.2% of his minutes were played with Kemba Walker also on the floor, and Kemba's on/off splits were more pronounced on offense and defense.
Charlotte averaged 113.1 points per 100 possessions with both Dwight and Kemba on the floor, but 118.8 when Kemba played without Dwight. They also held their opponents to fewer -- albeit slightly -- points per 100 possessions (110.0 versus 110.7) when Kemba played without Dwight.
Charlotte was far also better with the combination of Kemba and Zeller (120.9 points for and 109.3 points against per 100 possessions), and even if the Biyombo addition doesn't prove to be significant, simply getting Howard out and providing Zeller with more minutes should lead to some improvement.
We project the Hornets for 41.4 wins this year, and while that has only been good for a playoff spot in three of the last five seasons in the East, we have that projected as the 8th-highest mark in the conference.
