How a Weekend of Buzzer-Beating Game Winners Changed the Trajectory of the 2015 NBA Playoffs
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Game 4
There were so many series-defining moments in the final seconds of this game. If LeBron hadn't vetoed David Blatt's play call, if the refs had caught Blatt trying to call a final timeout he didn't have on the inbounds, or if the above fall-away, foot-on-the-line corner jumper by LeBron hadn't gone down, the swing in this series would have been enormous. Instead, the shot fell and LeBron reminded us that he is a hero in the clutch, worn-out narratives be damned.
Much like Game 3, this was a back-and-forth contest, with nine ties and six lead changes. There weren't as many shifts in odds as in Game 3, but both teams swapped win probabilities of 80% or higher during the game. Cleveland even peaked at over 95% with 41 seconds to go and an 84-79 lead, before a Jimmy Butler three and Derrick Rose driving layup tied things up at 84-84 with nine seconds remaining.
But the Cavaliers ultimately won on the LeBron shot for the biggest swing in odds of the entire weekend. Let's just say that Derrick Rose's Game 3 heroics were properly avenged by the one they call "the King."
Odds because the Cavaliers won:
| Team | Wins | Series | East Champs | Finals Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers | 2 | 56.05% | 30.74% | 10.01% |
| Bulls | 2 | 43.95% | 23.69% | 7.47% |
By winning Game 4 and reclaiming homecourt advantage for the three remaining contests, the Cavaliers also reclaimed their odds of winning the series (from 33.03% after a Game 3 loss to 56.05% currently), while nearly doubling their odds of both making the Finals (from 16.51% to 30.74%) and potentially winning the championship (from 5.03% to 10.01%).
So, what if LeBron's shot hadn't gone down and the Bulls had gone on to win in overtime? Well, brace yourselves, Chicago fans.
Odds if the Bulls had won:
| Team | Wins | Series | East Champs | Finals Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers | 1 | 14.67% | 8.11% | 2.66% |
| Bulls | 3 | 85.33% | 45.90% | 13.63% |
If the Bulls had won Game 4 and taken a 3-1 series lead (something they still had an 80% chance of doing with a 68-61 lead heading into the fourth quarter), they would've upped their chances of winning the series to a commanding 85.33%, their chances of making the Finals to 45.90% (almost double the next best Eastern team, the Hawks, at 25.40%), and brought their title odds to a season-high 13.63% (the best of any Eastern Conference team by a long shot).
Instead, the LeBron shot went down, and the Bulls saw their odds of winning the series drop by a crippling 41.38%, the East by 22.21%, and the title by 6.16% -- less than 48 hours after the Derrick Rose game winner went in and their odds hit their highest peak.
What a roller coaster of a weekend.
