NBA Playoff Odds Update: Will the Knicks Sneak In?
As we approach the end of the 2013-14 NBA season, the playoff races are becoming tighter with each passing day. The upper echelon of teams have solidified their positions at the top - seeding aside - while the last few playoff spots are still up for grabs as we begin the final stretch of games before the playoffs begin on April 19th.
The East's top seed is still up in the air, with Miami leading Indiana by one game as a result of the Pacers' recent struggles, going 3-7 over their last 10 games. There will be plenty of jockeying for position among the remaining contenders in the middle of the pack, including Brooklyn, Chicago, Washington, and Toronto, who could each finish from 3 to 6 seeding-wise. Can the Hawks hold onto the final spot, or will New York make a late surge before it's too late?
The Spurs could have all but locked up the top spot in the West with a win last week over the the Thunder, but Oklahoma City took a double-digit lead late in the third quarter and never looked back. The Spurs, however, still lead by 4.5 games as we enter the final two weeks. The last two spots in the West will be determined in the near future, with Phoenix, Dallas, and Memphis entering Thursday's games with identical records. But there's only room for two. The stretch run in the West is going to be a thrilling one, and we could once again see a 50-win team miss the playoffs in the West while a team with less than 40 wins reaches the playoffs in the East.
Can't make sense of it all? Don't worry, here at numberFire, we have all the tools necessary to break it down and simplify it all for you. I'll break down the odds, remaining schedules, projections, and potential matchups in the first round of the playoffs.
Eastern Conference
1. Miami Heat
Record: 53-23
nERD ranking: 4
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship odds: 21.8%
The Heat have clinched the Southeast Division and are currently leading the Pacers by one game for the top seed in the East. Remaining Games: vs. Brooklyn, @ Memphis, vs Indiana, @ Washington, vs Philadelphia.
2. Indiana Pacers
Record: 53-25
nERD ranking: 7
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship odds: 10.1%
The Pacers have clinched the Central Division, and trail Miami by one game for the top seed in the East. Remaining Games: @ Milwaukee, @ Miami, vs Oklahoma City, @ Orlando.
3. Toronto Raptors
Record: 45-32
nERD ranking: 8
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship odds: 3.8%
The Raptors have clinched a playoff spot, and currently lead Brooklyn by 2.5 games in the Atlantic Division. Remaining Games: vs Philadelphia, vs NY Knicks, @ Detroit, vs Milwaukee, @ NY Knicks.
4. Chicago Bulls
Record: 45-32
nERD ranking: 13
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship odds: 2.3%
The Bulls have clinched a playoff spot. Remaining games: @ Minnesota, vs Detroit, @ NY Knicks, vs Orlando, @ Charlotte.
5. Brooklyn Nets
Record: 42-34
nERD ranking: 17
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship Odds: 0.8%
The Nets have clinched a playoff spot. Remaining games: @ Orlando, vs Atlanta, vs Orlando, vs NY Knicks, @ Cleveland.
6. Washington Wizards
Record: 40-37
nERD ranking: 16
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship Odds: 0.7%
The Wizards have clinched a playoff spot. Remaining games: vs Charlotte, @ Orlando, vs Milwaukee, vs Miami, @ Boston.
7. Charlotte Bobcats
Record: 39-38
nERD ranking: 15
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship Odds: 0.7%
The Bobcats have clinched a playoff spot. Remaining games: @ Washington, @ Boston, vs Philadelphia, @ Atlanta, vs Chicago.
8. Atlanta Hawks
Record: 34-42
nERD ranking: 20
Playoff Odds: 96.1%
Championship Odds: 0.5%
The Hawks lead the Knicks by two games for the final playoff spot in the East. Remaining games: vs Detroit, vs Boston, @ Brooklyn, vs Miami, vs Charlotte, @ Milwaukee.
9. New York Knicks
Record: 33-45
nERD ranking: 19
Playoff Odds: 3.9%
Championship Odds: 0.1%
The Knicks trail Atlanta by two games for the final playoff spot. Remaining games:@ Toronto, vs Chicago, @ Brooklyn, vs Toronto.
The East's final spot currently has two potential suitors - two sub-.500 teams in New York and Atlanta. The Knicks are now the proud owners of the toughest road to the playoffs, with a schedule that includes two games against division leader Toronto, as well as traveling to Brooklyn. The Hawks have the easier road, but still have games remaining against Brooklyn, and Miami. Our numbers strongly favor the Hawks to get the final spot.
Western Conference
1. San Antonio Spurs
Record: 60-17
nERD ranking: 2
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship Odds: 17.7%
The Spurs have clinched the Southwest Division and lead the Thunder by 4.5 games for the West's top spot. Remaining games: @ Minnesota, @ Dallas, vs Phoenix, @ Houston, vs Los Angeles.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 55-21
nERD ranking: 5
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship Odds: 11.3%
The Thunder have clinched a playoff spot, and trail the Spurs by 4.5 games for the top seed in the West. Remaining games: @ Sacramento, @ Los Angeles Clippers, vs New Orleans, @ Indiana, @ New Orleans, vs Detroit.
3. Los Angeles Clippers
Record: 55-23
nERD ranking: 1
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship Odds: 17.6%
The Clippers have clinched the Pacific division. Remaining games: vs Oklahoma City, vs Sacramento, vs Denver, @ Portland.
4. Houston Rockets
Record: 51-25
nERD ranking: 3
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship Odds: 8.1%
The Rockets have clinched a playoff spot. Remaining games: @ Los Angeles Lakers, @ Denver, @ Minnesota, vs New Orleans, vs San Antonio, @ New Orleans.
5. Portland Trailblazers
Record: 50-28
nERD ranking: 10
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship Odds: 1.1%
The Blazers have clinched a playoff spot. Remaining games: vs Sacramento, @ Utah, vs Golden State, vs Los Angeles Clippers.
6. Golden State Warriors
Record: 48-29
nERD ranking: 7
Playoff Odds: 100%
Championship Odds: 3.2%
Remaining games: vs Denver, @ Los Angeles Lakers, @ Portland, vs Minnesota, @ Denver.
7. Dallas Mavericks
Record: 47-31
nERD ranking: 11
Playoff Odds: 90.4%
Championship Odds: 1.0%
Remaining games: @ Utah, vs San Antonio, vs Phoenix, @ Memphis.
8. Phoenix Suns
Record: 46-31
nERD ranking: 9
Playoff Odds: 60.7%
Championship Odds: 0.9%
Remaining games: @ New Orleans, @ San Antonio, @ Dallas, vs Memphis, @ Sacramento.
9. Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 45-32
nERD ranking: 14
Playoff Odds: 48.9%
Championship Odds: 0.5%
Remaining games: vs Miami, vs Philadelphia, @ Los Angeles Lakers, @ Phoenix, vs Dallas.
Of the three teams who are vying for the final spot in the West, the Mavericks have the toughest remaining schedule according to playoffstatus.com, whose remaining opponents own a 58% winning percentage, including a matchup with the Spurs. The Suns have a tough final few of games to finish off the regular season, including games with San Antonio, Dallas and Memphis, but they significantly strengthened their hold on the eighth spot with wins over Portland and OKC in the past few days. The Grizzlies own the most favorable schedule, with opponents holding a 49% winning percentage, whose toughest remaining games include a home game against Miami before wrapping up the regular season with crucial games against Phoenix and Dallas.
It's going to be a battle down the stretch for the final spots in the West, and the Suns and Mavericks have solidified themselves as the frontrunners over the past few days. The showdown on April 14th between Memphis and Phoenix will likely decide the final playoff spot. The top of the conference will likely look like much of the same come playoff time.
