How DeMarcus Cousins' Injury Impacts Each Team's Title Odds
When DeMarcus Cousins chose to sign with the Golden State Warriors this offseason, it felt almost like cheating. The reigning champs were getting a star reserve who would rest up for most of the regular season and fill in for a title run.
Unfortunately, Cousins may not help with an NBA Finals push after all.
The big man tore his quad while attempting to run down a loose ball in transition and will likely miss the rest of the playoffs.
This is probably season-ending for Cousins, but he and the team will see how he responds within the first two weeks of rehab that is not expected to require surgery, sources said. https://t.co/OctIgrMHOS
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 16, 2019
The Warriors were massive favorites to win the Finals before the playoffs began, and a 31-point rally from the Los Angeles Clippers now has them tied 1-1 in their opening-round series. But what do the odds say now?
Warriors With Cousins
Cousins actually had a net negative impact on the Warriors' lineup when on the court this season. The team played 2.4 points per 100 possessions worse with Boogie than they did without him. Even if we narrow the scope to after the All-Star break, that mark was -2.3 points per 100 possessions.
In all, Cousins had a negligible impact, at best, for the Warriors in terms of efficiency. He post a nERD mark of 2.0, which indicates how many wins he'd add to an average team over an 82-game sample.
So in this sense, we shouldn't expect the impact of the Cousins injury to be too massive. Further, the player who most directly should see more run as a result is Kevon Looney. His nERD this year? 5.2. After the All-Star break, the Dubs were 3.1 points better with Looney than they were without him.
So what does it all mean?
The Numbers
According to our algorithm, the Warriors -- from a 1-1 series tie with the Clips -- had a 38.6% shot to win the NBA Finals if Cousins were healthy for the remainder of the playoffs.
With Cousins out the rest of the way, the odds drop to 34.9%. Still well ahead of the pack and nothing to worry about just yet. Here's how every team's odds shift as a result of the Boogie injury.
| Team | Title Odds | New Title Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 38.6% | 34.9% | -3.7% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 19.9% | 21.9% | 2.0% |
| Toronto Raptors | 7.9% | 8.8% | 0.9% |
| Boston Celtics | 5.3% | 5.6% | 0.3% |
| Houston Rockets | 5.0% | 4.8% | -0.2% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 4.0% | 4.2% | 0.2% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 3.8% | 4.1% | 0.3% |
| Utah Jazz | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 3.2% | 2.9% | -0.3% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 2.4% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Denver Nuggets | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Indiana Pacers | 1.8% | 1.6% | -0.2% |
| Orlando Magic | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Pistons | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
