FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 11/11/19
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's main slate.
Two of the best values on the entire slate come in the form of Toronto Raptors centers: Chris Boucher ($4,100) and Marc Gasol ($5,200). Toronto is without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka. Boucher projects for minutes in the low 20s without Ibaka and has returned a stellar 1.34 FanDuel points per minute on the season. Gasol should crack 30 minutes but has posted only 0.66 FanDuel points per minute. The floor is safe, given the obvious minutes.
At the top end, we have Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,800) and Andre Drummond ($10,400) in a game against each other. Towns rates out third in my model today, but with Blake Griffin ($8,600) making his debut tonight, Drummond falls to sixth. With the value plays at center in Toronto, Drummond is more of a tournament option tonight.
Rudy Gobert ($8,300) and Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,900) rate out top-six in a game against each other despite the lowest total of the night. In fact, Gasol ranks third in value among all centers, according to numberFire's projections.
The best 75th-percentile values in my projections are Boucher, Gasol, Towns, Gobert, and Drummond.
Core Plays: Chris Boucher, Karl-Anthony Towns, Marc Gasol
Secondary Plays: Rudy Gobert, Willie Cauley-Stein
Tournament Plays: Andre Drummond, Dwight Powell ($5,100)
Shooting guard is pretty deep today on FanDuel, and that starts at the top with James Harden ($12,000) in that dream matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans. Harden has posted an elite 1.59 FanDuel points per minute. He's worth the salary and is a core play despite the values on the docket.
Marcus Smart ($5,400) should jump into a big workload with Gordon Hayward out with a broken hand. Smart posts 0.85 FanDuel points per minute, and he should get minutes into the 30s without much of an issue. Smart and Harden is a pretty strong shooting guard combination tonight. Jaylen Brown ($6,400) also rates out well without Hayward. Brown has a 22.7% usage rate without Hayward on the season.
Fred VanVleet ($6,900) ranks first in value based on numberFire's projections. He has a 25.3% usage rate without Lowry and Ibaka.
Core Plays: James Harden, Marcus Smart, Fred VanVleet
Secondary Plays: Jaylen Brown, DeMar DeRozan
Tournament Plays: Jrue Holiday, J.J. Redick, Norman Powell ($4,300)
With Russell Westbrook ($9,900) in a game environment as enticing as the Rockets/Pelicans game, he's really close to a lock button option. Westbrook draws the Pels' 29th ranked defense and has posted 1.43 FanDuel points per minute. Even at the salary, he is numberFire's top projected value of the night among all point guards. Heavy emphasis on Westbrook should lead to Luka Doncic ($10,700) turning up under-owned in a far less appealing game.
There's a slew of options in the $6,000 range for a secondary point guard, but I'm honing in on Dejounte Murray ($6,700). Remember Westbrook's 1.43 FanDuel points per minute? Murray is at 1.40. The San Antonio Spurs/Memphis Grizzlies game isn't quite Rockets/Pelicans, but it promises points and possessions. Derrick White ($4,400) also rates out well enough for the Spurs to offer salary relief.
Both forward slots don't put forth a lot of go-to plays, so I'll be building lineups around centers and guards tonight.
If spending up, I'd be looking to Jayson Tatum ($8,100) and then Kristaps Porzingis ($8,300) first and foremost. Tatum has a 33.4% usage rate without Hayward this year. Porzingis has played at least 31 minutes in six straight games and has a 26.0% usage rate.
The best per-dollar plays in my model are Derrick Favors ($5,300), Royce O'Neale ($4,000), and JaMychal Green ($3,700). Favors has played 8, 18, and 29 minutes over the past three games. numberFire pegs him for 26 tonight.
O'Neale projects for 33 minutes. He plays a lot, but you have to squint to see his 0.60 FanDuel points per minute and 8.6% usage rate.
Core Plays: Jayson Tatum, Derrick Favors, Royce O'Neale
Secondary Plays: Kristaps Porzingis, JaMychal Green, LaMarcus Aldridge
Tournament Plays: P.J. Tucker, Jaren Jackson
Spending up for Kawhi Leonard ($10,500) against his former team is never something I'd recommend against, but he's sixth among small forwards in my model on a per-dollar basis, and other options have ceilings close to his for much cheaper prices.
Brandon Ingram ($8,800) is one of them. He rates out second on a per-dollar basis among all small forwards for me tonight in that shootout game against the Rockets. Ingram has a 28.7% usage rate and averages 1.32 FanDuel points per minute. Teammate Kenrich Williams ($3,900) just played 28 minutes and projects for 27.6 tonight, via numberFire. He's a strong value play, as well.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,200) is priced well for his workload in a pace-up game. Bogdanovic averages 0.97 FanDuel points per minute and has a 26.3% usage rate, great peripherals for this game against the NBA's worst defense.
Core Plays: Brandon Ingram, Kenrich Williams, Bojan Bogdanovic
Secondary Plays: Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay
Tournament Plays: Pascal Siakam, Eric Gordon