NBA

5 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on 12/30/19

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Dec 30th, 2019
If Giannis Antetokounmpo misses a third straight game, Ersan Ilyasova will be a popular value play again.

One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays. If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you need to consider squeezing in one of these lower-priced options into your lineup.

Let's take a look at five players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup.

Aron Baynes, C, Phoenix Suns ($4,300)

With Deandre Ayton ruled out for the Phoenix Suns, Aron Baynes will be the starting center.

Ayton has missed five straight games since returning from his suspension, and in that time, we have seen Baynes get the start at center. He is a clear value play tonight considering he is under $5K and will be seeing the starting role. We have him projected for 24 minutes tonight, going for 23.9 FanDuel points against the Portland Trail Blazers. That is certainly doable tonight considering this game has an over/under set at 231 points -- the highest on the slate -- and we have both teams sitting in the top 12 for offensive pace this season.

Not only is the pace of this game excellent, but the matchup is as well. This season, the Trail Blazers are allowing 56.2 FanDuel points per game to opposing centers, the fourth-most in the league.

Gary Payton, SG, Washington Wizards ($5,300)

The newly-signed Wizard, Gary Payton, could be in for a big role tonight.

It's no secret that the Wizards have an immense number of injuries this season and added to the list recently is All-Star shooting guard Bradley Beal. He sat out their most recent game against the New York Knicks, and in that time, we saw Payton play 30 minutes, posting 40.2 FanDuel points. With Beal listed as questionable for tonight's game against the Miami Heat, we have Payton playing 26 minutes and posting 29 FanDuel points.

This has him coming in as the second-best value option at shooting guard tonight, and he should be very popular. The over/under is set at 227 points in this game and should be a solid spot for Payton to hit value, despite this being a pace-down spot for the Wizards.

Ersan Ilyasova, PF, Milwaukee Bucks ($5,000)

The biggest injury news of the slate surrounds Giannis Antetokounmpo, as he's missed two straight games.

Anytime a player of Antetokounmpo's caliber is questionable, it leaves a big question mark in the middle of the slate. Not only is he very expensive -- which changes roster construction -- but his production and minutes will be picked up by someone on the Milwaukee Bucks. In these past two games with Antetokounmpo out, we have seen Ersan Ilyasova get the start in both games. Not only is Ilyasova starting, but he is being very productive and exceeding value in each game, posting 39.4 and 42.3 FanDuel points.

Well over one fantasy point per minute, that should continue tonight versus the Chicago Bulls, who are allowing 49.4 FanDuel points per game to power forwards this season -- dead last in the league. This is the ideal spot for Ilyasova to keep producing if Antetokounmpo is ruled out again.

Derrick Jones, SF, Miami Heat ($4,200)

With a pace-up spot and an easy defensive matchup, the Heat should be very popular tonight.

The Wizards are sitting at fifth when it comes to the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, while the Heat are the 15th-fastest team. A strong pace-up spot for the Heat means extra possessions on the ball, meaning more opportunities to produce fantasy points. Those extra touches should be extremely beneficial tonight since the Wizards are allowing the fifth-most -- 42.2 -- FanDuel points per game to small forwards this season. Derrick Jones stands to gain from all of this since he is playing 26 minutes or more in most of his recent games and only needs 21 FanDuel points to reach 5x value tonight.

We have Jones projected for another solid 28 minutes and 22.6 FanDuel points tonight. He is cheap, in a pace-up spot, and facing a weak defense, checking all the boxes tonight.

Shabazz Napier, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves ($4,600)

Shabazz Napier is in line to get the start again tonight for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

In the Timberwolves' most recent game, Andrew Wiggins was out and pushed Napier into the starting point guard role. Wiggins was not at shootaround this morning and is listed as questionable for tonight's game against the Brooklyn Nets. Napier only managed 14.9 FanDuel points in his most recent start, but in that game, he shot 3-of-17 from the floor. Clearly a bad shooting performance, but the volume of shots is more important than anything. He is seeing a large role in the current Timberwolves offense -- who are still without Karl-Anthony Towns -- giving him a clear path to value.

That volume of shots tonight is something you want to embrace against the Nets, who are allowing 49.6 FanDuel points per game, the fourth-most to point guards. He is set for a big night against his former team.