NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 2/7/20

Vaughn Dalzell  —  @VaughnDalzell Feb 7th, 2020
With Russell Westbrook sitting out tonight, is the stage set for a dominating performance from James Harden against the Suns?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.

For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

James Harden, Over 38.5 Points and Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers

James Harden and the Houston Rockets travel to Phoenix and are without Russell Westbrook on the second night of a back-to-back.

A matchup between Harden and Devin Booker with the Rockets' new additions potentially makes this a high-scoring affair. The Suns allow the sixth-most points per game to shooting guards (23.77) and both teams rank among the 10 worst teams in points allowed per game, with the Suns ranked 20th (113.9).

Harden scored 14 points last night versus the Los Angeles Lakers, as he deferred to Westbrook, who went off for 41 points. Harden's usage rating has dropped over the past five games, going from his season average of 36.89% down to 33.19% with Westbrook's stellar play. But now it's Harden's turn to run the show, and he's averaged 38.3 points over his last three games before last night, scoring 40 versus Charlotte and New Orleans.

Harden has gone for 40 in two of six road games since the New Year, too, and both teams he's eclipsed that total against have similar defensive numbers versus shooting guards -- Atlanta and Memphis allow the seventh- and fourth-most points to shooting guards. And while those two teams rank ahead of the Suns in three-pointers allowed, they let Harden make an average of 4.5 triples on 19.5 attempts (23%).

numberFire's model projects Harden to score 38 points on 5.7 made three-pointers, and even with his new teammates, I think he's going to go for 40 and attempt 15-plus three-pointers tonight.

Steven Adams, Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds

Steven Adams and the Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Detroit Pistons, who just traded away their best player and the NBA's leading rebounder for next to nothing. Andre Drummond is with Cleveland now, and Adams, along with a few other teammates, could take up some of Drummond's 15.8 rebounds per game.

The Pistons rank 27th in rebounding per game this season (42.5), and Adams is averaging 9.2 rebounds per game. The Pistons also allow the fifth-most points to opposing centers per game (22.51), and Adams is averaging 7.7 points over his last four games and 10.7 on the season.

Although Adams hasn't recorded nine rebounds or more in six straight games, with the last coming on January 18 versus the Portland Trail Blazers, tonight is a good opportunity to get his numbers up. Without Drummond, a lot of the Pistons stats are worthless because he averaged 37.1% of their rebounding totals.

I like Adams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (O/U 7.5), and Dennis Schroder (O/U 3.5) to all hit the over on their rebound props tonight. Adams is projected by numberFire's model to record 10.9 points and 8.9 rebounds as the first center up versus the new-look Pistons. Let's just hope this one isn't over by halftime.