3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 2/20/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Bam Adebayo, Over 16.5 Points
Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat played their final five games before All-Star break on the road, and it did not look good. Adebayo held his own, averaging 24 points in the first two of the road trip before scoring 13 or fewer in the final three games in four days. He was a busy man over All-Star Weekend, but he still had a few days to rest before making the trip to Atlanta. This will be the fourth and final game between these division opponents, and it's a favorable starting point for the 2020 Skills Challenge champion.
In three games versus Atlanta, Adebayo has averaged 19.7 points, and he's scored 17 or more in two of those three contests. The Hawks allow the second-most points per game to centers (23.54), hence why he's found success shooting versus Atlanta, going 21 for 30 from the field versus them this season.
Adebayo averages more points versus only four teams this season, and in Miami's 35 wins, he's averaged 16.3 points. The Heat are favored tonight and will still be without Meyers Leonard and Tyler Herro, so expect Adebayo to take on a big scoring role for the Heat. numberFire's model projects Adebayo to record 16.4 points tonight, but I lean toward the over here in what is a major pace-up spot for Miami.
James Harden, Over 32.5 Points
James Harden points prop lines keep dropping despite his play rising. He's scored 32 or more in five of his last seven games and is averaging 33 points during that stretch. In his last game before the break, he scored 42 versus Boston, giving him his third 40-point game in his past six. He still leads the league at 35.3 points per game, and he averages more points on the road (35.5 in 24 games) than he does at home (35.1 in 27 games). Good news for Harden -- his opponent ranks 29th in both points per game to shooting guards (25.00) and allowed three-pointers made (3.97).
In two games versus the Golden State Warriors this season, Harden has put up 30 points per night. On Christmas, Harden had a dud performance of 24 points, but in the first meeting, he exploded for 36. In his last four games -- all of which have come since the addition of Robert Covington and the subtraction of Clint Capela -- Harden has averaged 34 points.
By our model, Harden is projected to score 33.9 points tonight, point us toward the over.
Joel Embiid, Over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Joel Embiid is coming off a double-double in the All-Star game with 22 points, 10 rebounds, and one dream-shake on LeBron James that was beautiful. The Philadelphia 76ers' big man averaged 22.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.6 assists in his final five games before the break. Philly opens up with the Brooklyn Nets, and Embiid hasn't played them yet this season.
Last year, however, Embiid owned the Nets with averages of 30 points per game, 14.3 rebounds, and 5 assists in four contests. His over/under in points is 23.5, which is a solid bet itself, and his rebounding line has jumped to 12.5 after opening at 11.5.
The Nets -- despite having two solid centers - do not stop the opposing big men well. Versus the position, Brooklyn ranks 27th in opponent rebounding (16.61) and 18th in points per game (21.80) allowed.
Embiid has double-doubled in his last 10 games versus Eastern Conference opponents, and numberFire's model pegs Embiid to keep that momentum rolling tonight. Embiid is projected to record 23.3 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.1 assists -- totaling 38.3 combined points, boards and dimes, which is just under the line here. Off three days of rest or more, however, he's averaging 24 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 3.0 assists for 40.8 total, and I like him to get to the over tonight.