NBA

NBA Betting Guide: Sunday 1/10/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets

Under 226.0: 4-Star Rating out of 5

There's no doubt that Kevin Durant (probable to play tonight) is going to want to light it up tonight when he gets a chance to take on his old team, the Oklahoma City Thunder. He's done just that in the past, putting up 31.4 points and 8.4 boards versus OKC in his career while shooting an incendiary 45.2% from beyond the arc. His hot play has not translated into high-scoring games, however.

The under has gone 7-1-1 when Durant has faced OKC, with the Golden State Warriors and Thunder combining to average just 216.5 points in games with average totals of 225.2. Tonight's total is similar at 226.0 points, and our model indicates we're in for another lower-scoring game.

The Brooklyn Nets and Thunder have the third- and eighth-best defensive efficiency in the league this year. The under is a combined 10-6-2 in their games this campaign. The Thunder and New York Knicks combined for just 190 points in their game on Friday. The under is 7-4 in the past two seasons when the Thunder are coming off a game in which they and their opponents combined for under 200 points. The under has hit in four straight such games.

We project the teams to combine for 215.4 points this evening, 10.6 lower than the current total. We give the under a 69.1% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a four-star play.

Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors

Under 233.5: 5-Star Rating out of 5

The Toronto Raptors are just 2-6 to start the season, a surprising start for a team that is coming off a 53-19 record a year ago. While there are certainly many factors at play in their fall, the loss of Marc Gasol to the Los Angeles Lakers has to be high on the list.

Gasol joined the Raptors in February 2019. With him on the team, Toronto won 75.7% of their games. Without him (including their poor start to this season), they've won just 55.6%, and the loss has been felt most on the offensive side. The team has averaged 2.8 fewer points, 2.0 fewer assists, and has shot 3.6 percentage points worse from beyond the arc without him.

While it has damaged the Raps in the win column, Gasol's absence is good for folks who are interested in betting the under, which is what our model is identifying as a solid play tonight when Toronto takes on the Golden State Warriors.

The under has gone 4-4 when the teams have met over the last three seasons, including the playoffs. The average total has been just 217.2 points in those games, which have seen an average of 218.0 points scored. Tonight's total is set at 233.5.

Our model has the teams combining for 219.0 points tonight. We give the under a 76.8% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a strong five-star play.