FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 2/10/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's nine-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Point Guard

Key Studs: Luka Doncic ($10,900) gets a solid $500 dip in salary and will be facing an Atlanta Hawks defense that ranks 26th against point guards this season, according to numberFire's DvP tool. Prior to his dud against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday, Luka had averaged 68.9 FanDuel points against teams that are bottom-eight in defending the position. Doncic is our model's second-highest projected scorer despite a slate loaded with studs.

The Brooklyn Nets have allowed the third-most fantasy points to point guards over their last seven games (according to FantasyPros), which means Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200) is worthy of consideration despite three straight underwhelming performances. In order to reach our baseline value figure of 5.0, Brogdon would need 36.0 FanDuel points tonight, and he's exceeded that number -- usually with ease -- in 15 of his 24 outings this season. Given that this matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Nets features the highest-projected total on the slate, we'll want as much exposure to it as we can get.

Other Studs to Consider: Kyle Lowry ($7,600) and Ja Morant ($7,100) are numberFire's third- and fourth-best projected values, respectively.

Core Plays and Value Options: In addition to George Hill and Theo Maledon, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for tonight's bout with the Los Angeles Lakers -- enter Hamidou Diallo ($6,500). Diallo has at least 30 fantasy points in four straight, including a 42.2-FanDuel-point performance on Monday. He should be one of the best value plays on tonight's nine-gamer.

Our model's top-projected value at the position is Monte Morris ($4,100). Morris is averaging 21.9 FanDuel points in his last four games with P.J. Dozier and Gary Harris out of the lineup.

As long as Patrick Beverley doesn't return tonight, Reggie Jackson ($5,100) could be a worthy option with Paul George out. With PG13 out on Sunday, Jackson recorded 28.4 FanDuel points in 30.6 minutes of action.

Honorable Mentions: Coby White ($5,600) is our model's second-best projected value at point.

Shooting Guard

Core Plays and Value Options: With the Milwaukee Bucks down Jrue Holiday, the slack will need to be picked up by someone, and that someone looks like it'll be Donte DiVincenzo ($4,700). According to RotoGrinders, DiVincenzo's usage has spiked by 2.9% without Jrue on the court this season, and that's resulted in a 0.12 FanDuel-point-per-minute bump. Sans Holiday last night against the Denver Nuggets, Donte recorded a season-high in fantasy points (38.4) while seeing his second-highest minutes total of the campaign (30.6). He's our model's top-projected value at the position.

Over their last 15 games, only five teams have ceded more FanDuel points to shooting guards than the Dallas Mavericks, who will face Kevin Huerter ($5,000) tonight. Huerter is averaging 33.4 fantasy points over his last three, and he should continue to see an increased role with De'Andre Hunter out for a lengthy period.

Finally, Dillon Brooks ($5,200) posted 38 fantasy points on Monday with De'Anthony Melton and Brandon Clarke out of the lineup, and both players are out again tonight. This season, Brooks averages an additional 0.12 FanDuel points per minute with those two off the court.

Honorable Mentions: In the last four games without Kevin Durant, Bruce Brown Jr. ($4,200) is averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game, and that includes an output of 32.3 last night. Torrey Craig ($3,800) played a season-high 23.1 minutes with Holiday inactive yesterday, and our model projects him to be the second-best value at shooting guard on tonight's slate.

Key Stud: Being able to roster James Harden ($10,600) for less than $11,000 seems like a treat, even if this isn't the friendliest matchup. Harden popped for 63.2 FanDuel points with KD on the sidelines last night, and he has now bested 55 fantasy points in four of his last six games. The Nets have the second-highest implied total on tonight's slate, and Harden's bound to be a huge part of that.

Other Studs to Consider: Zach LaVine ($9,300) gets a delicious draw in the New Orleans Pelicans, and the Chicago Bulls will be without Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter, Wendell Carter Jr., and Chandler Hutchison tonight. The issue is that LaVine hasn't exactly showcased tremendous upside in his recent play -- the highest output in his last 12 games has been 52.3, and he's had 46.4 or fewer in seven of his last eight. He's not the worst play, but he's probably better suited for cash games.

Small Forward

Core Plays and Value Options: When he's not sharing the court with Jrue Holiday this season, Khris Middleton ($7,600) is averaging an additional 0.31 FanDuel points per minute. Yeah, that'll play. With Holiday inactive last night, Middleton totaled 62.6 fantasy points -- his second-highest fantasy output in the last two seasons and 8.8 points better than his previous season-high. Yes, the matchup with the Phoenix Suns is brutal, but the Denver Nuggets aren't exactly a cakewalk, and Middleton walked all over them.

Given all the players that will be out for Chicago, our model projects Denzel Valentine ($4,400) to be the best value on the entire slate. The Pels rank 27th against small forwards this season, which certainly helps Valentine's outlook, as does the fact that he's averaging 27.1 FanDuel points over his last four games.

If you feel so inclined, you can make your pick between three OKC small forwards -- Kenrich Williams ($4,500), Lu Dort ($4,300), and Justin Jackson ($3,700). In terms of value, Jackson's our model's preferred play. That said, given that he's only had more than 16.8 fantasy points once this season, I'd rather roster one of the other two. Dort was hurt for much of the two games that SGA missed last week, but he is the one I'd look to roster. In terms of upside, Dort has had four games this season with 30 or more fantasy points, including one outing with 50.6. Williams is probably the safest of the bunch, as he's racked up 28.2, 19.8, 25.8, and 25.6 fantasy points in his last four, respectively, but I'd prefer Dort's upside, especially in tournaments.

Honorable Mentions: Our model has both Josh Hart ($4,100) and Will Barton ($5,400) returning value figures better than 5.2.

Studs to Consider: Anthony Davis sat out Monday's matchup with the Thunder and all LeBron James ($10,700) did was post 69.8 fantasy points. Not bad. If AD is out again, LeBron is back in play against this very same Thunder team that ranks dead last against small forwards this season. It is worth noting that the Lakers are 11.5-point favorites with SGA out for this one, so the blowout risk is elevated here -- still, LeBron would likely be largely responsible if a blowout did occur.

If Davis is active, we can pivot to Kawhi Leonard ($9,700) against a Minnesota team that has the league's seventh-worst defensive efficiency, per NBA.com. Kawhi dudded with Paul George out on Sunday, amassing just 33 fantasy points, but that could mean lower rostership tonight.

Power Forward

Key Studs: Not only is Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900) our algorithm's top-projected scorer on tonight's slate, but he's also numberFire's fifth-best projected value at power forward. Tonight, Giannis will have a salary under $11,000 for the first time since last July, and we can certainly take advantage of that small bit of savings. Sure, the two-time MVP has only posted 41.7 and 47.8 FanDuel points in his last two games, but he had racked up at least 57.8 in five of the six games before that.

Over their last 15 games, the Nets have surrendered the most fantasy points to power forwards and second-most to centers -- hello, Domantas Sabonis ($9,300). Sabonis has had outings of 58.1 and 54.4 FanDuel points in two of his last four games, and he likely has even more upside for tonight's titillating match.

Other Studs to Consider: Along with Giannis and Sabonis, our model also has Kristaps Porzingis ($8,700) returning a value figure of 4.9 or better.

Core Plays and Value Options: This season, the Washington Wizards have ceded the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers, which is where Chris Boucher ($6,000) tends to see most of his minutes. Over his last 17 games, Boucher has had a six-game stretch where he never produced fewer than 38.3 fantasy points, an eight-game streak with fewer than 30, and, most recently, three straight outputs of at least 32. His upside is truly immense, and with the Toronto Raptors having the highest implied total on tonight's slate, Boucher is very much a core play.

Our model's top-projected value at the position is Patrick Williams ($4,400). Williams is averaging 33.8 minutes and 27.0 FanDuel points over his last four, and he would only need 22 to accrue 5X value.

Honorable Mentions: Maxi Kleber ($4,000) and Davis Bertans ($4,200) are both projected to return value figures better than 5.1. Darius Bazley ($6,500) has seen his salary rise, but he did erupt for 43.7 fantasy points against the Lakers on Monday, and he should benefit from additional usage tonight.

Center

Core Plays and Value Options: With Brandon Clarke off the court this season, Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200) is averaging an impressive 1.36 FanDuel points per minute. In fact, with Clarke out on Monday, Valanciunas racked up 58.5 fantasy points, 8.8 more than his previous season-high. Tonight, he'll face a Hornets team that's ceding the eighth-most fantasy points to centers in 2020-21.

For $500 more, you can roster Andre Drummond ($7,700), who is our model's top-projected value at center tonight. Drummond has garnered at least 44.5 FanDuel points in 10 of his last 15 efforts, and he would only need 38.5 to accrue our baseline value.

If you need a salary-saver, you can look to Willy Hernangomez ($3,700). Hernangomez is averaging 24.0 fantasy points over his last five games, and he'll face a Bulls team that's allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to centers over their last seven games.

Stud to Consider: We can't just ignore Nikola Jokic ($11,100), who is averaging an astounding 57.1 FanDuel points per game this season. That said, the Cleveland Cavaliers do rank as the sixth-stingiest teams to the opposition's centers this season. In four matchups against top-eight defenses against the position this season, the Serbian is averaging just 40.3 fantasy points per game, including his three lowest outputs thus far.