FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 2/23/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's nine-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Point Guard

Stud

Kyrie Irving ($8,800): As I discussed in today's studs to target column, Kyrie is an excellent spend today. As the Brooklyn Nets' shooting guard, Irving gets a salivating matchup against a Sacramento Kings team that's allowing the most fantasy points to the position, according to numberFire's DvP tool. The 28-year-old leads the team with a 33.5% usage rate with Kevin Durant out of the lineup, per RotoGrinders, and KD will be inactive tonight. Irving has gone for at least 44 FanDuel points in 12 of his last 17 games, and that includes at least 47.8 in 4 of his last 8.

Other Studs to Consider:
Damian Lillard ($10,300): Tough-ish matchup against the Denver Nuggets. Had averaged 60.9 FanDuel points in four games prior to last night's dud.
Trae Young ($9,600): Cavaliers have ceded eighth-most fantasy points to point guards over their last seven. Young has at least 48.3 in 11 of his last 15.
Jamal Murray ($8,300): Murray's averaging 52.8 FanDuel points over his last four, and he faces a Portland team that's allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position in their last 15 games.
De'Aaron Fox ($7,900): Brooklyn's primary weakness is not defending backcourts, but the Kings will need a big game from Fox to keep this game competitive.

Value Play

Darius Garland ($5,900): The Atlanta Hawks rank 26th against point guards this season, and that's definitely part of the reason why our model projects Garland to be the best value at the position. The 21-year-old has put up 28.7-plus FanDuel points in 8 of his last 13, including outputs of 35.2 and 43.6 in 2 of his last 4. numberFire's algorithm has Garland projected for a healthy 32.7 fantasy points tonight.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Michael Carter-Williams ($4,500): MCW is averaging 25.2 FanDuel points in the five games since he's returned, including 24 or more in three of those five contests.
Patrick Beverley ($4,500): Beverley has managed 24.4, 26.8, and 35.7 FanDuel points in three of his last four outings, and he faces a Wizards team that ranks 29th against point guards this season.
Kemba Walker ($6,600): No team has allowed more fantasy points to the position than the Mavericks over their last 15 games. Kemba has totaled 37.4 and 52.0 FanDuel points in two of his last three.

Shooting Guard

Stud

James Harden ($11,000): Given the Nets' implied total of 124.5 tonight -- which is highest on the slate -- fitting both Harden and Irving into some lineup builds is not out of the question. Harden is averaging 60.5 FanDuel points over his last five games, and he's topped 55 fantasy points in 8 of his last 12. As I mentioned in the Irving blurb, the Kings are terrible at defending shooting guards this season -- not that the matchup matters much for a player like Harden, who dropped 61.6 fantasy points on Sacramento eight days ago.

Other Studs to Consider:
Bradley Beal ($9,800): Only two teams have allowed more fantasy points to shooting guards than the Clippers over their last 15 games. Beal has topped 50 FanDuel points in four of his last five.
Paul George ($8,500): Washington defends shooting guards surprisingly well (eighth-best), but PG13 has surpassed 42.5 fantasy points in 12 of his 22 games this season.
Fred VanVleet ($8,200): FVV sports a team-high 27% usage rate with Kyle Lowry off the court -- Lowry is questionable. The 76ers rank 23rd against shooting guards this season.

Value Play

Seth Curry ($4,000): Despite the return of Shake Milton, Curry is numberFire's top-projected value at shooting guard. With Milton in the lineup on Sunday, Curry posted 27.6 FanDuel points in 35.3 minutes of action -- he's now garnered more than 34 minutes in six straight. The 30-year-old would need just 20 fantasy points to accrue a 5.0 value figure, and he's managed at least 22.8 in 12 of his 24 games this campaign.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Josh Jackson ($5,100): Jackson is facing a Magic team that ranks dead last against the position over their last 15, and the Pistons will be without Delon Wright for the next two weeks. Jackson's exceeded 30 FanDuel points in 5 of his last 10.
Terrence Ross ($5,400): Ross is averaging 35.8 fantasy points over his last seven games, and Detroit is sixth-most generous to the position in their last seven contests.
Norman Powell ($6,500): Powell has posted 43.4, 46.2, and 8.9 FanDuel points in his last three games with Lowry out of the lineup. He's an intriguing tournament play if Lowry is out again. The Sixers have allowed the most real-life points to the position over their last 15.

Small Forward

Stud

Kawhi Leonard ($9,800): In the studs column, I also brought up Kawhi as a worthwhile target tonight. Over their last 15 games, no team has allowed more fantasy points to small forwards than the Wizards, who are bottom-five in real-life points, rebounds, assists, and steals given up to the position during that stretch. Washington has been playing fantastic basketball of late, winning five in a row -- that mitigates the blowout risk quite a bit. Given the Clippers' implied total of 123.0, Leonard should have an extremely high ceiling. He's the only small forward projected to post 40 or more FanDuel points tonight, and he's our model's fourth-best point-per-dollar play at the position.

Other Studs to Consider:
Khris Middleton ($7,200): Middleton's brief rough patch looks to be a thing of the past as he's put up 36.6 and 63.6 FanDuel points in his last two. The Wolves have allowed the most real-life points to the position over their last 15 games.
Pascal Siakam ($8,900): Siakam has produced at least 40 fantasy points in 9 of his last 12, including more than 44 in 6 of those outings.
Kelly Oubre ($7,600): Oubre has posted 42.7, 43.6, and 46.9 fantasy points in his last three, but he faces a Knicks team that ranks third-stingiest against the position.

Value Play

Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,300): With Kristaps Porzingis and Maxi Kleber out for Dallas tonight, numberFire's algorithm projects Finney-Smith to be the best value at the position. The Celtics rank 13th against small forwards in 2020-21, but they are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to the position over their last 15 outings. With the extra volume left behind by Porzingis and Kleber, Finney-Smith should prove to be a solid salary-saver.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Cedi Osman ($5,400): Taurean Prince is doubtful, so we can go back to Osman for value. Osman has averaged 30.1 FanDuel points over his last four.
Josh Richardson ($4,700): Richardson dropped 30.9 FanDuel points last night, making it the fourth time in his last nine games that he's topped 30. Like Finney-Smith, he'll benefit from the absences of Porzingis and Kleber.
Michael Porter Jr. ($5,700): The Nuggets will be down a number of bodies, but MPJ has reached 30 fantasy points just once in his last 13 games. That said, he's numberFire's third-best projected value at the position.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300): The Greek Freak is averaging 66.6 FanDuel points over his last seven games. Yeah, you read that right. numberFire's model has Giannis outscoring the next-highest scorer on the slate by 5.3 fantasy points, and he also happens to be our algorithm's top-projected point-per-dollar play at the position. In their last seven contests, the Wolves have allowed the third-most fantasy points to small forwards and eighth-most to power forwards. Giannis is a core play, as usual.

Other Studs to Consider:
Julius Randle ($8,800): The Warriors rank 22nd against power forwards this season. Randle has topped 40 FanDuel points 21 times this season, including 15 outputs of 45.5-plus.
Tobias Harris ($8,000): The Raptors come in 26th against power forwards and are 3rd-worst versus the position over their last 15 games. Harris is averaging 48.2 FanDuel points over his last four.
John Collins ($6,800): Collins gets a tasty matchup against a Cavs team that's 29th against power forwards in 2020-21. He has eclipsed 35 fantasy points in 4 of his last 10.

Value Play

Daniel Theis ($4,900): Theis has posted at least 24.5 fantasy points (the number he needs for a 5.0 value figure tonight) in 10 of his last 16 games, and that includes five outputs of 35.5 or more. Tonight, he'll face a Mavs frontcourt that will be without two key players in Porzingis and Kleber. Dallas had already ranked 28th against power forwards and 22nd versus centers this season, and those two being out certainly won't help matters.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Jaden McDaniels ($3,800): McDaniels is our model's second-best point-per-dollar play at the position behind Giannis. He has recorded 21.7-plus FanDuel points in four of his last seven games.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($3,500): No team has allowed more fantasy points to power forwards than Detroit. On Sunday, in just his fourth game of the season, Aminu put up 31.2 FanDuel points in 19 minutes.
Nerlens Noel ($5,300): Noel is numberFire's third-best projected value at the position.

Center

Stud

Nikola Jokic ($10,500): Prior to Sunday's 41-point "dud," Jokic had amassed more than 55 FanDuel points in 17 of his previous 24 games -- and that includes 10 outings with more than 60. Tonight, he'll face a Portland team that's been mediocre against centers this season but has allowed the fourth-most real-life points to the position over their last seven games. Denver's 119 implied total is fourth-highest on tonight's slate.

Other Studs to Consider:
Joel Embiid ($10,800): Embiid has racked up more than 52 FanDuel points in 12 of his last 16 games, and that includes performances of 60.7, 62.4, 65.0, 84.2, and 93.9 during that stretch. Toronto has surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to centers over their last 15.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,900): Vuce pegged the Pistons for 63.9 FanDuel points on Sunday, and he's now garnered 62-plus in five of his last nine.
Clint Capela ($8,200): No team has allowed more fantasy points to centers than the Cavs since they benched Andre Drummond.

Value Play

Brook Lopez ($5,000): The Timberwolves have allowed the most fantasy points to centers this season, and our model projects Brook to be the best value at center tonight. Lopez has reached 25-plus FanDuel points only once in his last eight efforts, so he's not without risk. Targeting Bobby Portis ($4,800) at power forward might be a better way to get exposure to Minnesota's weak interior.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Willie Cauley-Stein ($3,700): WCS disappointed with just 16.2 fantasy points last night, but he'll have less competition for minutes tonight with Kleber inactive, as well.
Robert Williams ($5,000): Williams has produced 34.6, 38.4, and 39.1 FanDuel points in three of his last four games, and Dallas is the most generous team to centers over their last 15 games.
Jarrett Allen ($7,600): Allen has put up 38.2, 39.3, 43.0, and 55.4 FanDuel points in four of his last five games. Atlanta is a middle-of-the-road matchup for centers.