3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 3/2/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Trae Young Over 2.5 Made Threes (-120)
No team in the NBA allows a higher three-point attempt rate than the Miami Heat do. An eye-popping 47.0% of the shots Miami surrenders come from beyond the arc. Tonight Miami takes on the Atlanta Hawks, and Atlanta has this Trae Young guy who likes shooting threes.
Young has hoisted at least seven three-point tries in seven consecutive games, and Miami has permitted an average of 2.6 made triples per night to the point guard position. I like backing Young to hit at least a trio of three-pointers tonight.
You can also exploit Miami's three-point defense via Kevin Huerter's made threes prop. Miami has allowed an average of 3.8 three-points makes on 10.8 three-point tries per game to shooting guards. Huerter's over 2.5 made treys prop is listed at +120.
Ja Morant Under 8.5 Assists (-122)
It's a little scary to bet the under on anything in the Memphis Grizzlies-Washington Wizards game. The total is up at 235.5 points, and the spread is just 1.0 (in favor of Memphis). It should be a dream environment for counting stats. But our model sees value on the under on Ja Morant's assists prop as we project him to amass only 7.6 dimes.
Morant has dished out at least nine assists just once in his past six games, and he's averaging 7.7 helpers on the season. Washington's league-high pace will be a boost, but over their last 15 games, the Wiz have given up a league-low 6.1 assists per game to point guards. And for the year, Washington has allowed a league-low 7.6 assists per game to the position.
Washington should be able to keep Morant from racking up a massive assist total.
Dennis Schroder Under 16.5 Points (-118)
The Phoenix Suns-Los Angeles Lakers game will likely be a low-scoring battle as the total is set at just 213.5. The Lakers (first) and Suns (sixth) both rank in the top six in defensive efficiency, and they're also each in the bottom half of the league in pace. With Phoenix 29th in pace, this is a pace-down spot for LA, who is 17th.
Dennis Schroder had some big scoring games in February and is in the midst of his best scoring run of the season. He's gone over 16.5 points in six of his past nine games. But it was a much different story prior to this recent stretch. In 16 games in January, he went for 17-plus points only twice.
We project Schroder for 15.3 points tonight.