3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 3/4/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 31.5 Points (-110)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 35.2 points across his past five games and has scored at least 36 four times in that span. So if you're squeamish about backing the under on his points prop, I understand. But our model sees good value here in Giannis' date with the Memphis Grizzlies.
Prior to his red-hot five-game tear, Antetokounmpo had scored 29 or fewer points in four of five outings. He's averaging 29.1 points per night for the season, and he's posting 28.6 points per game this campaign when playing on one day of rest, which is the case tonight. Antetokounmpo has also been a higher scorer in losses (31.3) than in wins (27.6) this season, and the Milwaukee Bucks are 5.5-point favorites over the Grizz.
We project Giannis for 28.4 points as of Thursday morning.
Robert Covington Under 8.5 Rebonds (-134)
Over his last three games, Robert Covington has pulled down 10, 10 and 9 boards -- a big uptick over his season-long average of 6.6 rebounds per night. Covington's recent rebounding totals have pushed this prop up a bit too high, per our model.
Before the past three games, Covington had grabbed nine-plus boards only twice in his previous eight games. He's played tonight's opposition -- the Sacramento Kings -- twice this season, and he totaled eight and six rebounds against them. Covington will be playing on zero rest, and in a small sample of five games in that split this season, he has averaged only 5.8 rebounds.
Our algorithm projects Covington to get 6.6 rebounds tonight.
Eric Bledsoe Over 1.5 Made Threes (-170)
The Miami Heat-New Orleans Pelicans game should feature a lot of three-point attempts. The Heat allow the highest three-point attempt rate in the NBA (47.1%) while the Pels surrender the third-highest clip (45.0%).
The over on Eric Bledsoe making two-plus threes has already been pushed to -170, which isn't ideal, but it's still one of the best spots to take advantage of the likely onslaught of three-point tries we will get in this clash.
Miami gives up 10.8 three-point attempts per game to shooting guards, the second-most, and our model forecasts Bledsoe for 2.0 made treys.
If you want a little more bang for your buck, you can opt for the prop of Bledsoe to make at least three triples, which is priced at +198.