NBA Betting Guide for 3/4/21: Exploring the Final Night Before the All-Star Break
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Los Angeles Clippers at Washington Wizards
The Washington Wizards are trending up overall. Their past 10 games include a 7-3 record and a +2.3 net rating, but that does come with some troubling underlying data as well. Their effective field goal percentage in that span ranks just 14th, their rebounding rate ranks 18th, and their turnover rate ranks 24th.
They've also dropped two straight now and three of their past five. Further, when I adjust for opponents they've faced in that stretch, their raw offensive rating looks inflated by around 5.0 points, and their raw defensive rating is inflated by around 6.5 points.
For the Los Angeles Clippers, they could be without Kawhi Leonard, who is questionable. Their net rating falls from a +10.7 with him to a -1.2 without him. But even using that data against Washington's adjusted data during a recent surge puts the spread at close to the 5.5 points in favor of the Clippers that we're seeing on the odds board.
numberFire's algorithm views the Clippers -5.5 as just a one-star wager (it's 52.9% likely), but the betting trends on oddsFire are way in on the Clips: more than 65% of the bets and money is on Los Angeles to cover the spread, and more than 74% of the tickets are on the Clippers to win outright. That includes 81% of the money on the Clippers moneyline, as well.
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks
There's been a pretty significant trend toward overs of late, and 54.5% of games since February 1st, but these are two under-friendly teams. The New York Knicks' games this season have hit the under at an NBA-high rate of 63.9%, and the Detroit Pistons have done so 51.4% of the time.
There's pretty heavy money on the under (209.5) relative to the tickets (54% of the money and just 21% of the tickets). That's the biggest discrepancy we have on the entire slate across all totals, spreads, and moneylines.
numberFire is projecting a median score of only 206.0 in this game, as well. The under rates out as 57.9% likely to occur, leaving an estimated return of 9.9%. There are unders our algorithm likes more than this one, but that combined with the smart money indications makes this one to feature.
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
We're seeing alignment between the algorithm and the betting trends on this game between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns, who beat Golden State 114-93 on January 28th.
Our algorithm is rating the Phoenix spread (-6.5) as a three-star recommendation out of five and the and the Phoenix moneyline (-225) as a full-on five-star recommendation. Our algorithm loves the 23-11 Suns and ranks them as the sixth-best team in the NBA. The 19-17 Warriors are getting love, too, and rank 11th.
However, our projections see Phoenix as 63.0% likely to cover that spread (for an estimated 20.3% return), and they also give Phoenix an 83.5% chance to beat Golden State. Their moneyline of -225 converts to only a 69.2% probability.
The betting public has sided with Phoenix, as well. oddsFire shows that 71% of the tickets and 83% of the money are on Phoenix to cover and that 70% of the tickets and 78% of the money is on the Phoenix moneyline.
