FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 3/11/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's 11-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.

All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.

Slate Overview

This table is via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet -- it shows the over/under for each game, as well as each team's spread and implied total. The table also includes each squad's offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, as well as opponent-adjusted defensive rating for the opposing team, including the respective league-wide ranks for each of those ratings.

Teams are sorted by their implied total.

Point Guard

Stud

Kyle Lowry ($8,500) - As I outlined in the studs to target column, Lowry is an excellent play tonight. The Toronto Raptors will still be without Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby, among others, which means Lowry should continue to see sky-high minutes and usage. He's racked up 39.8, 45.1, and 52.2 FanDuel points in the three games with those players out. Per numberFire's DvP tool, Lowry's opponent tonight, the Atlanta Hawks, rank 25th against point guards this season.

Other Studs to Consider:
Luka Doncic ($10,400) - At his lowest salary since the bubble. numberFire's second-highest projected scorer on tonight's slate. Thunder are a middling matchup for point guards.
Stephen Curry ($9,700) - Has posted 52.9-plus in four of last seven. Clippers are sixth-worst against the position over their last 15 games.
De'Aaron Fox ($8,500) - Is averaging 47.6 fantasy points over his last five. Rockets play at second-fastest on tonight's slate and are 21st against point guards.
John Wall ($8,200) - Has 42.4-plus FanDuel points in five of his last eight. Kings are allowing seventh-most fantasy points to the position in his last 15 games.

Value Play

Jaylen Nowell ($3,600) - The Minnesota Timberwolves will be without Jordan McLaughlin and Malik Beasley, which opens up a ton of usage for a player like Nowell. In 120 minutes with those players off the court this season, Nowell averages an additional 0.14 FanDuel points per minute, according to RotoGrinders. numberFire's algorithm projects the 21-year-old to be the second-best value on the entire slate. He'll face a New Orleans Pelicans that's ceded the most fantasy points to the position over their last 15 games.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Shake Milton ($4,200) - Has posted 29.2 and 34.8 fantasy points in two of his last three. Leads the team with a 30.7% usage rate with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons off the court, while averaging 1.07 FanDuel points per minute.
Ricky Rubio ($4,700) - Should also see a bump in volume with McLaughlin and Beasley out. Matchup is mouth-watering.
Theo Maledon ($4,000) - Has garnered 21.9-plus in three of his last five. Daillo is still out. Mavericks are 29th against point guards over their last 15 games.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Paul George ($7,800) - Targeting the Clippers 118.5 implied total (second-highest tonight) is not a bad idea, and George is a great way to get exposure to those points. The 30-year-old has surpassed 42 fantasy points in 14 of his 27 games this season, and that includes nine outings with at least 45. Our model has PG13 as the second-highest scoring shooting guard and fourth-best point-per-dollar play at the position.

Other Studs to Consider:
James Harden ($11,500) - Has posted 59.6-plus FanDuel points in 8 of his last 12. The matchup is on the tougher side, but he's as matchup-proof as it gets.
Zach LaVine ($9,400) - 76ers are third-worst against shooting guards over their last 15. LaVine has put up 46.4 or more fantasy points in 7 of his last 13.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,900) - Has exceeded 49 fantasy points in three of his last seven. Mavs allowing sixth-most FanDuel points to the position over their last 15.

Value Play

Seth Curry ($4,200) - Get used to seeing Philly players in this column. Curry has managed at least 22.8 fantasy points in 14 outings this season, and he'll be asked to do a lot tonight with both Embiid and Simmons inactive. The pace of the Chicago Bulls certainly won't hurt, as Chicago plays faster than all but four teams that are taking the court tonight.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Dwayne Bacon ($3,500) - The Magic will be without Evan Fournier, James Ennis, and (possibly) Aaron Gordon tonight. Bacon is our model's top-projected value at the position.
Terrence Ross ($5,700) - Has exceeded 30 fantasy points in 9 of his last 12. Should also see a bump in volume for Orlando.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,100) - Has racked up at least 20.8 fantasy points 24 times this season. Only needs 20.5 for a 5.0 value figure.

Small Forward

Stud

Brandon Ingram ($7,700) - Ingram has surpassed 40 FanDuel points 17 times this season, and he's got a great chance at making that 18 tonight. At 123.25, the New Orleans Pelicans possess the highest implied total on tonight's slate, and they'll be squaring off against a Wolves defense that's given up the sixth-most fantasy points to small forwards over their last 15 games. numberFire's algorithm projects the 23-year-old for 41.4 FanDuel points and a solid value figure of 5.37.

Other Studs to Consider:
Kawhi Leonard ($9,300) - Limited ceiling in recent play has led to his lowest salary since January. Still, Golden State ranks 22nd against the position and Kawhi has put up at least 46.3 in 8 of his last 13.
Norman Powell ($7,500) - Has equaled at least 38.1 fantasy points in six of his last eight. Volume should remain high with Toronto missing a chunk of its roster.
Jimmy Butler ($9,600) - Has topped 47 fantasy points in 13 of 19 healthy games this season. Orlando has allowed the eighth-most FanDuel points to small forwards in 2020-21.

Value Play

Jake Layman ($3,500) - In the three games that he's seen at least 23 minutes of action this season, Layman has racked up 21.7, 21.8, and 34.9 FanDuel points, with the latter two coming in his last two efforts. With Beasley, McLaughlin, and Jarrett Culver out for the Wolves, Layman shouldn't have much trouble at all returning adequate value. In fact, our model has him as the best value play on the entire slate.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Stanley Johnson ($3,500) - Saw a season-high 35.7 minutes in the final game before the All-Star break and put up 23.9 fantasy points in the process.
Danny Green ($4,100) - Every Sixers player is in play tonight with Embiid and Simmons out. Green has totaled at least 22.9 FanDuel points in four of his last seven.
Josh Hart ($5,000) - Has 26.3 or more fantasy points in 5 of his last 10, including outputs of 38.8 and 41.0. Minnesota is sixth-most-generous to small forwards over their last 15 contests.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) - Over the last four weeks, Giannis is averaging 3.6 more FanDuel points per game than any other player in the league. His average is 62.4 during that stretch, which is flat-out absurd. The two-time MVP garnered at least 62.6 fantasy points in 8 of his 12 games before the break. That kind of consistent upside is tough to find anywhere else.

Other Studs to Consider:
Zion Williamson ($9,000) - Had topped 45 FanDuel points in 9 of 11 games prior to the break. Minnesota is 25th against the position this season and the Pels have the highest implied total tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,700) - Dropped 45.3 last night. OKC is third-worst against power forwards throughout their last 15 contests.
Jayson Tatum ($8,900) - Has eclipsed 50 fantasy points in two of his last three. The Nets are 18th in defensive efficiency among the 22 teams playing tonight.

Value Play

Tobias Harris ($6,900) - I featured Harris in tonight's studs column, but given that he's our model's top-projected value at power forward -- by a mile -- we'll have him as the key value play for the helper. Harris has erupted for at least 42.9 fantasy points in 6 of his last 11 games, and that includes performances of 51.4, 57.0, and 58.5. With Embiid and Simmons out tonight, he has the potential to put up a gaudy number at a very reasonable salary. As an added bonus, the Bulls come in 21st against power forwards over their last 15 games of this campaign.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Jae'Sean Tate ($4,700) - Could see a nice volume bump with Danuel House Jr. out and Eric Gordon banged-up. Has exceeded 29 fantasy points in 5 of his last 10.
Chris Boucher ($6,500) - Had 35 FanDuel points in each of his last two games before the break. Usage should remain high with FVV, Siakam, and Anunoby out.
Nicolas Claxton ($4,000) - Posted 27.1, 33.1, and 34.1 FanDuel points in three of his four games before the break.

Center

Stud

Clint Capela ($8,500) - Capela's been hit-or-miss lately, eclipsing 50 fantasy points in three of his last six, but totaling fewer than 30 in two of the other four. In total, the 26-year-old has trumped 41 FanDuel points in 6 of his last 10 games, and tonight is the perfect opportunity for him to keep rolling. In their last 15 games, the Raptors have given up the sixth-most FanDuel points to opposing centers.

Other Studs to Consider:
Nikola Vucevic ($9,900) - Tough matchup but Vuce has topped 54 fantasy points in four of his last seven.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500) - Has gone past 46 fantasy points in 5 of his last 8. Pels are seventh-worst against centers over their last 15 outings.

Value Play

Dwight Howard ($3,800) - When it's all said and done, Howard could end up being one of the best values on the entire slate. His minutes and usage should be soaring with Embiid and Simmons out, and he's facing a Chicago Bulls that's surrendered the most fantasy points to the center position throughout their last 15 games. In the last five games Embiid has missed, Howard has averaged a salivating 28.9 fantasy points per contest.

Other Value Option:
Justin Patton ($4,000) - Has racked up 20.0, 29.7, and 38.2 FanDuel points in his last three. Sacramento is third-worst against the position over their last 15 contests.