FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 3/24/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's loaded 11-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.

All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.

Slate Overview

This table is via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet -- it shows the over/under for each game, as well as each team's spread and implied total. The table also includes each squad's offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, as well as opponent-adjusted defensive rating for the opposing team, including the respective league-wide ranks for each of those ratings.

Teams are sorted by their implied total.

Point Guard

Stud

Luka Doncic ($11,000) - As I outlined in today's studs column, Luka is my favorite spend among the upper echelon of high-salaried players tonight. Doncic has posted 60 or more FanDuel points in three of his last four contests, and he'll carry that hot streak into a delicious matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves. So far this season, the Wolves are ceding the most fantasy points to opposing point guards. Doncic dudded for just 39.1 FanDuel points in his last match against them, but in his 11 other matchups against teams that are bottom-eight versus the position, he's averaged 59.4 fantasy points. Tonight, the Dallas Mavericks carry an implied total of 119.50, which is tied for highest on the slate, according to numberFire's Matchup Heatmap. Doncic is a great way to get exposure to those points.

Other Studs to Consider (in order of preference):
Trae Young ($8,700) - This game has the highest over/under tonight and Atlanta has the third-highest implied total. Sacramento is sixth-worst against point guards over their last 15 games.
De'Aaron Fox ($8,900) - Has at least 42.9 fantasy points in 10 of his last 12. Dropped 49.4 on the Hawks 11 days ago.
Chris Paul ($7,500) - Orlando is 28th against the position this season. CP3 has put up 37.8 or more FanDuel points in four of his last six.
John Wall ($8,000) - Has 42.4 or more FanDuel points in five of his last seven efforts. Charlotte is 24th versus point guards this campaign.

Value Play

Derrick White ($5,200) - Rostering White isn't for the faint of heart -- in his last nine games, he's had four outputs of 18.2 fantasy points or fewer, but the upside is certainly there. Over his last six contests, the 26-year-old has managed at least 34.3 FanDuel points three times. He'll carry that upside into a matchup with a Los Angeles Clippers team that's been struggling mightily to defend point guards of late. In their last 15 games, no team in the league has surrendered more points to the position than the Clips. numbeFire's algorithm projects White to be the third-best point-per-dollar play at point. The fact that both Rudy Gay and Lonnie Walker are out certainly doesn't hurt.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Terry Rozier ($7,000) - Totaled 45.6 fantasy points in his first game without LaMelo Ball. Houston is 23rd against one-guards this season.
Jordan Clarkson ($4,600) - Has at least 25.8 FanDuel points in 12 of his last 17 games. Our model's second-best projected value at point guard. Utah has a 119.5 implied total.
Tomas Satoransky ($4,800) - Has racked up 29.4-plus fantasy points in four of his last six. Cleveland has been mediocre against the position lately.
T.J. McConnell ($5,000) - Has 27.9, 30.5, and 54.7 FanDuel points in his last three. Is worth rostering if Malcolm Brogdon can't go.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Donovan Mitchell ($8,400) - Mitchell managed to put up at least 41.8 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 11 games, including 46.2 or more in five of his last seven. The 24-year-old should see plenty of volume given Utah's 119.5 implied total tonight. The over/under for this matchup with the Brooklyn Nets has an over/under of 231.0, which is good for second-highest on this 11-game slate.

Other Studs to Consider:
James Harden ($11,300) - Has accumulated 56.3 or more fantasy points in six of his last nine. Despite the tough matchup, Harden is worth considering with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant out.
Victor Oladipo ($7,800) - Has topped 40 fantasy points in five of his last eight. Charlotte is second-worst against the position over their last 15 outings.

Value Play

P.J. Dozier ($3,500) - With Monte Morris out last night, Dozier saw his highest minutes total (28.0) in nearly two months and turned that into 24.2 FanDuel points -- that resulted in a very nice 6.9 value figure. Morris is out again tonight for a matchup with a Toronto Raptors team that's surrendered the third-most fantasy points to shooting guards over their last 15 games. There's excellent salary-saving potential here.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Marcus Smart ($5,000) - Has put up at least 27.3 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. Over their last 15 games, Milwaukee has ceded the 12th-most fantasy points to two-guards.
Devonte' Graham ($5,000) - Managed just 19.6 fantasy points in his first game without Ball in the lineup, but he did see his highest minutes total (28.7) since the beginning of February. Houston is 27th versus the position this season.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,500) - Minnesota has been the most generous team to shooting guards over their last 15 games. THJ has eclipsed 25 FanDuel points in four of his last eight.
Will Barton ($5,900) - Is averaging 33.9 FanDuel points in his last seven. Like Dozier, his matchup is quite friendly.

Small Forward

Stud

Jaylen Brown ($7,800) - Brown has amassed at least 45.8 FanDuel points in five consecutive games, and he's got a great chance to keep that going in matchup with the Bucks that should not be short on fireworks. Milwaukee's solid defense hasn't done a fantastic job at limiting power forwards this season -- they rank just 22nd against the position. When Brown went up against the Deer in the season opener, he dropped 33 real-life and 54.0 fantasy points. This bout has an over/under of 229.5, which is undoubtedly worth chasing.

Other Studs to Consider:
Gordon Hayward ($7,000) - Racked up 44.4 fantasy points in his first game without LaMelo in the lineup. Houston is 23rd against small forwards over their last 15 games.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,500) - Has posted 46.3 or more FanDuel points in 9 of his last 15. San Antonio has been solid against forwards this season.

Value Play

Malik Monk ($3,800) - Monk didn't produce a whole lot in his first game without Ball in the lineup, but it was nice to see him play 26.8 minutes while sporting a 25.4% usage rate in that contest. If he can maintain a role like that, he should be able to return value, especially in a matchup like this. As I mentioned in the Hayward blurb, the Rockets have allowed the eight-most fantasy points to small forwards over their last 15 games. Monk is our model's top-projected value at the position.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Justin Holiday ($3,900) - Prior to Monday's dud, Holiday had garnered 19.8 or more fantasy points in 17 of his last 20 games. Detroit has been tough on small forwards, but Holiday doesn't need much to return adequate value.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,900) - Has 21.0, 23.1, and 26.6 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. Minnesota is third-worst versus the position in their last 15 contests.
Kyle Anderson ($5,500) - Fresh off a 47.5-FanDuel-point performance on Monday. OKC is dead last against small forwards this season.

Power Forward

Stud

Domantas Sabonis ($8,800) - The individual matchup for Sabonis tonight is as good as it gets. On the season, no team in the Association has given up more fantasy points to opposing power forwards than Detroit. Sabonis erupted for 61.6 FanDuel points the last time he faced the Pistons. The All-Star comes in with excellent form, as he's stockpiled at least 46 FanDuel points in five of his last eight outings.

Other Studs to Consider:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400) - Is averaging a league-best 58.2 FanDuel points over the last four weeks. In four games against Boston over the last two seasons, Giannis is averaging 59.6 fantasy points. numberFire's top-projected scorer tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500) - Has maxed out at 35.6 fantasy points in his last four games, but did have outputs of 45.3 and 45.7 in the two before that. Minnesota is third-worst against the position over their last 15 games.

Value Play

Maxi Kleber ($3,800) - numberFire's algorithm projects Kleber to be one of the best-point-per-dollar plays on tonight's slate. The matchup is fantastic -- the Wolves are allowing the third-most fantasy points to power forwards over their last 15 games. Kleber has also eclipsed 20 FanDuel points in six of his last nine games.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
JaVale McGee ($3,800) - Has 35.1 and 36.3 fantasy points in two of his last four games. Chicago is dead last against centers this season. McGee is numberFire's top-projected value at power forward.
Isaiah Stewart ($4,100) - Has at least 27.2 FanDuel points in three of his last five games. Indiana is fourth-worst against power forwards and fifth-worst against centers over their last 15 games.
Jae Crowder ($3,900) - Has had more than 20 fantasy points in seven of his last nine efforts. Crowder only needs 19.5 for 5X tonight.

Center

Stud

Nikola Jokic ($10,800) - The Serbian has amassed fewer than 57 FanDuel points just 3 times in his last 11 games, and that includes six outputs of 61.5 or more. Tonight, he'll face a Raptors team that's struggled to defend the interior lately. Over their last 30 games, Toronto has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Other Stud to Consider:
Clint Capela ($7,200) - Hasn't been fantastic lately but a matchup with Sacramento could be the cure for that. The Kings are 24th against centers in 2020-21.

Value Play

Ivica Zubac ($5,000) - In his last four games, Zubac has eclipsed 30 FanDuel points three times. numberFire's algorithm projects him to record 26.7 against the Spurs, which would mean he'd surpass 5X value with ease.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Moses Brown ($4,700) - Has topped 24 FanDuel points in six of his last seven, including outputs of 30.8, 34.4, and 53.2 in three of his last four.
Robert Williams ($5,900) - Has trumped 30 fantasy points in 7 of his last 11 outings, including performances of 45.2 and 51.3 in two of his last four.