3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on 3/26/21
Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.
Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.
All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
FanDuel Salary: $10,500
On last night's slate, we were hurting for top-shelf studs we could feel great about. That's not the case today, although some injuries mean we don't have as deep of a studs pool as we'd normally get on an 11-game slate. There are five players with five-digit salaries, and you can make a strong case for each of them. But two stand out for me -- Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Let's start with Jokic.
The Joker has a monster ceiling, and he's showed it lately, producing at least 67 FanDuel points three times in his last six games. Admittedly, he's been more hit or miss than usual during that span, posting games of 38.5 and 36.0 FanDuel points in addition to his three ceiling performances and a 57.0-point showing. But those blah outings are probably the reason his salary has dropped $1,200 since it got to $11,700 back on March 13th.
Jokic is taking on a New Orleans Pelicans team that sits 28th in defensive efficiency in a game that is shaping up to be perfect for DFS. The Denver Nuggets' 117.25-point implied total is the slate's third-best clip, and this clash carries a 2.0-point spread with a 232.5-point total. Jokic hit up the Pels for 57.0 FanDuel points on March 21st.
We project Jokic for 54.4 FanDuel points, which comes out to 5.18 points per $1,000. As of early Friday afternoon, he's the top point-per-dollar play among those with a salary at $8,000 or above, and there's a chance Jokic isn't quite as popular as usual with several quality alternatives at center, though none of them can get to his ceiling.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF, Milwaukee Bucks
FanDuel Salary: $11,100
Giannis is coming off a disappointing fantasy output of 34.1 FanDuel points Wednesday versus the Boston Celtics. He takes on those same Celtics tonight, but there isn't much reason for worry.
The 34.1 FanDuel points were his second-fewest of the season, and his 13 real-world points marked just his second time being under 20 points since the calendar flipped to 2021. In his other game against Boston this year, which was the season opener for the Milwaukee Bucks, Antetokounmpo totaled 35 points and 13 boards en route to 52.6 FanDuel points. Prior to the dud on Wednesday, Giannis had averaged 61.1 FanDuel points across his previous four games.
One positive of the matchup, which isn't an easy one, is that there isn't much blowout risk. The Bucks are 6.0-point favorites and boast a slate-best 119.75-point implied total. This game's 233.5-point over/under is the highest of the night.
What makes Giannis a priority for me is the opportunity cost of not using him at power forward. We project him for 56.7 FanDuel points. Our model has the next-best power forward (Domantas Sabonis) at 45.0 FanDuel points. We have just three power forwards other than Giannis forecasted for more than 40 FanDuel points, and none of them can sniff Giannis' ceiling.
At a projection of 56.7 FanDuel points, Antetokounmpo is our model's top-projected player of the day, and we have him generating 5.11 FanDuel points per $1,000.
Luka Doncic, PG, Dallas Mavericks
FanDuel Salary: $10,800
Much like Giannis, Luka Doncic came up with a stinker last time out, but we can go right back to him tonight.
On Wednesday, Doncic had what looked like a dream date with the Minnesota Timberwolves, but he struggled and finished with only 27.8 FanDuel points, making just 6 of 16 shots. It was Doncic's second-worst FanDuel output of the season, and he had totaled 60-plus FanDuel points in three of his prior four games leading into Wednesday.
The matchup is nothing special. The Indiana Pacers are a decent defense -- 13th in defensive efficiency -- but the Dallas Mavericks own a juicy 116.5-point implied total in a game with a 228.5-point over/under and 4.5-point spread.
Our algorithm projects Doncic for 53.4 FanDuel points. We have just one other point guard -- Trae Young (43.6 FanDuel points) -- projected to go for more than 40 FanDuel points, and Doncic's ceiling of 68.1 FanDuel points is nearly 13 points clear of any other point guard's ceiling, per our model. I'm going to have a hard time passing on Doncic given how favorable his projections are compared to the rest of the position.
