3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/6/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Pascal Siakam Under 23.5 Points (-116)
The Toronto Raptors are drawing the Los Angeles Lakers without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but the absence of those two stars doesn't necessarily lead to a massive drop in defensive efficiency for the Lakers.
Their defensive rating with both James and Davis this year is 100.6, but it jumps just 2.7 points per 100 possessions to 103.3 when they are both off the floor. For perspective, a 103.3 defensive rating would rank first on the full season anyway.
That helps explain the 208.5-point total and a slim 1.0-point spread that actually favors the Lakers.
Siakam averages 0.53 points per minute against top-five defenses over a 245-minute sample, down from 0.58 on the full season. We're projecting him for 35.0 minutes, and at the 0.53-points-per-minute rate, that's just 18.6 points.
Our algorithm is projecting him for only 19.2 points.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 Assists (-106)
That bodes well for Donte DiVincenzo's assist hopes. DiVincenzo is averaging 3.5 assists per game over his past 10 and averages 0.11 assists per minute on the season. He is projected for 29.7 minutes tonight (which would get him to 3.3 assists at his season-long assist rate).
In 12 games with an over/under of at least 235.0, though, his per-minute assist rate goes up to 0.15 (which would lead to 4.5 over his projected minutes workload).
We are projecting DiVincenzo for 3.4 assists outright tonight. A lot is pointing to the over for him in nearly 30 minutes.
Paul George Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-120)
The Los Angeles Clippers draw a Portland Trail Blazers team that is virtually exactly league average in allowing three-point attempts, so we can't bump Paul George up at all in terms of expected rates -- but shouldn't knock him either.
George has taken 0.22 three-point attempts per minutes on the season (and 7.4 three-point attempts per game with 3.1 makes per game).
We're projecting him for 36.9 minutes (which should lead to 8.1 attempts at his current per-minute rate). numberFire is actually projecting him for slightly more: 8.3.
George is a 42.3% three-point shooter this season and has made 41.7% of threes as a Clipper. Even at that lower rate over a larger sample, he should convert around 3.5 makes based on his projected attempts.