3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 4/12/21

"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."

How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?

When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.

This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at contrarian plays that help you gain leverage against the competition.

Monday's slate is a reasonable nine games, so we should be able to find plenty of options to differentiate off of the night's chalk plays. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.

Guard

Zach LaVine ($8,700) - While I know you are going to have massive exposure to Donovan Mitchell tonight -- and you should with Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson out -- don't sleep on Zach LaVine, who is carrying the Chicago Bulls on his back even with the additions they made at the trade deadline.

The Bulls adding Nikola Vucevic, a center who can space the floor and shoot from anywhere, has opened up the floor quite a bit for Lavine. When Wendell Carter Jr. was in town, he was stuck down in the paint, but not so with the flexibility of Vucevic. LaVine has responded with 48.2 FanDuel points in his last five games, improving to 56.4 in his last three.

While LaVine may not have the overwhelmingly enticing matchup against the Washington Wizards like Mitchell does, the Memphis Grizzlies have allowed the seventh-most FanDuel points to shooting guards over their last 30 games, including 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 three-pointers per night. What you are hoping for here is a Jazz blowout that puts Mitchell on the bench for large parts of the second half and for LaVine to continue his elite play from recent days.

Forward

Brandon Ingram ($8,000) - With almost every starter sitting tonight for the Brooklyn Nets, this looks to be Kevin Durant's game to return to superstar form. He was at 18 and 23 minutes in his first two games back from injury, so we can reasonably expect 28-30 minutes tonight, which should make him very chalky against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

There isn't a straight dollar-for-dollar pivot for Durant tonight, but I'm of the opinion Durant's salary is slightly too high for what is an uncertain role and minutes he may receive. I have no issue dropping down $1,400 to Ingram, who has been at 34.5 minutes and 37.7 FanDuel points per game since returning from his injury and faces the worst defense in the league tonight.

I am out of adjectives to describe in this space how bad the Sacramento defense is this year. Both a 117.8 defensive rating and the 10th-fastest pace in the league is a DFS manager's dream for their rosters. And the Kings have somehow been worse (118.4 rating) in their last four games, as they have shifted to a small-ball lineup with Harrison Barnes playing power forward and Buddy Hield guarding small forwards.

The New Orleans Pelicans should be healthy tonight (although Lonzo Ball is questionable), but even with all the mouths to feed in that lineup, Ingram should have no problem getting his.

Center

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,800) - I can only imagine how popular Rudy Gobert will be tonight with only the fifth-highest salary while facing the Wizards' league-worst 58.44 FanDuel points allowed to centers this year. But in lineups where I don't use Gobert or Karl-Anthony Towns tonight, I plan to sprinkle in some J-Val, which would be a great play even if he didn't go all Moses Malone last night against the Indiana Pacers.

Coming off a 34-point, 22-rebound performance last night, we don't have much hope that Valanciunas will do something to top that, but he certainly can reach the value we need at a salary under $8,000 against the worst defense against centers over the last month. Those 58.44 FanDuel points allowed by the Wizards look downright attractive when you see that the Bulls have allowed 61 FanDuel points to centers over the last 30 games. Vucevic may be an asset on offense, but he still ranks 69th among all centers in real defensive plus-minus. On that end of the floor, he is a liability.

Even before the 68-FanDuel-point explosion last night, J-Val has been on a hot streak, averaging 41.3 FanDuel points in his last three before last night. With a matchup against the Bulls on the horizon, I see no reason to think he will cool down tonight, and he saves you a few bucks off the chalky Gobert.