FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 4/13/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.
Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's six-game main slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern.
This table is via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet -- it shows the over/under for each game, as well as each team's spread and implied total. The table also includes each squad's offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, as well as opponent-adjusted defensive rating for the opposing team, including the respective league-wide ranks for each of those ratings.
Teams are sorted by their implied total.
Damian Lillard ($8,800) - Lillard is at his lowest salary in over 13 months, which is one of the reasons why he was featured in today's studs column. Due to his recent volatility, Dame should avoid being too chalky, which makes him more intriguing in tournaments. The match between the Portland Trail Blazers and Boston Celtics has the slate's second-highest over/under (229.5), which means we'll want exposure to it. numberFire's models project the 30-year-old to post 46.7 FanDuel points, which is tops on the entire slate.
Malachi Flynn ($5,200) - With Kyle Lowry being declared out, we can go back to Flynn for value. In the five with Fred VanVleet injured and Lowry out, Flynn posted an average of 37 FanDuel points. At tonight's salary, he would only need 26 to accrue our baseline value figure. Our algorithm projects Flynn to be the second-best value on the entire slate.
Paul George ($9,000) - This is rather straightforward which, unfortunately, will make George the chalk tonight. For their bout with the Indiana Pacers, the Los Angeles Clippers will be down Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka, and Patrick Beverley. With those players off the court this season, George sports a 36.6% usage rate while averaging 1.49 FanDuel points per minute, according to RotoGrinders. Given that this game has the slate's highest over/under (232.0), we'll want a piece of this action.
Devonte' Graham ($6,600) - In addition to LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk, and PJ Washington being out tonight, Terry Rozier is doubtful, which means that the Charlotte Hornets will be oozing with value options. The first among them is Graham, who should see all the volume he can handle. Cody Martin ($3,600) is also worth considering for just $100 more than the minimum.
Jaylen Brown ($8,000) - Brown has put up 40.1, 43.5, and 55.5 FanDuel points in his last three games, and tonight, he'll face a Portland squad that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and has allowed the fourth-most real-life points and 10th-most fantasy points to small forwards over their last 15 games. The 24-year-old has at least 43.5 fantasy points in 8 of his last 15 games, and he only needs 40 to achieve five-times value tonight.
Miles Bridges ($6,200) - Bridges has amassed 35.4-plus FanDuel points in three of his last five games, and given how shorthanded Charlotte will be, his usage should continue to climb. Over their last 15 games, the Los Angeles Lakers rank 21st against the opposition's small forwards, which bodes well for Bridges' stock. He's a core play tonight.
Domantas Sabonis ($9,000) - For tonight's bout with the Clippers, Indiana will be without Myles Turner, and with Turner off the court this season, Sabonis has a team-leading 26% usage rate while averaging a rock-solid 1.38 FanDuel points per minute. Sabonis has garnered 45.0 and 50.5 FanDuel points in his last two outings, making it 30 instances that he's surpassed 40 in his 49 games. He's worth rostering against a Clippers team that won't be anywhere close to full strength.
Jalen McDaniels ($6,000) - Another position, another player from the Hornets. McDaniels dealt with a facial laceration and foul trouble in Sunday's outing, but in the two games prior, he dropped 38.7 and 41.7 FanDuel points. He should have a featured role tonight against a Lakers team that has struggled mightily versus power forwards of late. Throughout their last 15 games, Los Angeles has given up the fourth-most FanDuel points to the position.
Clint Capela ($9,300) - In his last 18 games, Capela has eclipsed 40 FanDuel points 11 times, including nine performances of 47.3 or better. In two matchups with the Toronto Raptors, the big man has gone for 47.8 and 53.2 fantasy points, and he has similar upside tonight. In fact, our algo has him projected for 46.6 FanDuel points, which is tied for the highest on the entire slate.
Robert Williams ($6,000) - As of writing, Williams is numberFire's top-projected point-per-dollar play on the entire slate. Though he has failed to do so in any of his last five games, Williams did exceed 33 FanDuel points in five of his six games prior -- he only needs 30 for a 5.0 value figure tonight.